Demographic Change and Intra and Intergenerational Distribution: Modelling the Impact of Different Welfare Models (WELTRANSIM)

The WELTRANSIM project aims to explain the distributional effects induced by the ageing process and how welfare models contribute to mitigating such effects and securing wellbeing across the life cycle (from childhood to old age). Undoubtedly, population ageing changes the distribution of income, public resources and time use. In this respect, different welfare models induce different costs for actors and influence life course risks differently. We will contribute to investigating this issue by obtaining new data on intergenerational transfers, and by deriving innovative modelling tools. We will also employ macroeconometric techniques to test the interaction of economic, demographic and policy variables. In particular we will combine the National Time Transfer Accounts (NTA-NTTA) methodology with microsimulation analysis (both a static simulation tool – EUROMOD – and dynamic microsimulation) in order to investigate the extent to which the welfare state transfers, together with the ageing process, shift resources to the elderly. The proposal takes a comparative perspective based on the typologies of welfare models (Esping-Andersen, 1990). They serve as ideal-types or categories for comparing empirical variations (taxonomies) and testing empirical hypotheses. In this respect, the participating countries will act as typical cases of welfare state regimes – liberal, corporatist, social democratic – plus the subsequently added "familial or mediterranean" (Esping-Andersen, 1999).