Nach vorübergehendem Abschwung gute Wachstumsaussichten. Mittelfristige Prognose der österreichischen Wirtschaft bis 2005 (Favourable Growth Prospects Beyond the Temporary Downturn. Medium-term Projections for the Austrian Economy Until 2005)
Der gegenwärtige globale Konjunktureinbruch ist eine kurzfristige Abschwächung, mittelfristig wächst die österreichische Wirtschaft
um 2,4%. Diese Dynamik wird von den Exporten getragen und wirkt sich auch auf die Investitionstätigkeit günstig aus. Die Beschäftigung
dürfte um durchschnittlich 0,8% pro Jahr (+23.000) ausgeweitet werden, wobei die Teilzeitstellen durch die Einführung des
Kinderbetreuungsgeldes 2002 überdurchschnittlich zunehmen werden. Die Arbeitslosenquote (laut AMS) stagniert zunächst und
geht danach bis 2005 auf 5,2% leicht zurück.
Keywords:Mittelfristprognose Oesterreich
Forschungsbereich:Makroökonomie und öffentliche Finanzen
Sprache:Deutsch
Favourable Growth Prospects Beyond the Temporary Downturn. Medium-term Projections for the Austrian Economy Until 2005
Over the period 2001-2005, GDP in Austria is projected to grow at an annual average 2.4 percent in volume, closely in line
with the pace expected for the EU as a whole (+2.5 percent). In the early part, economic growth will be held back by the international
cyclical weakness. In the following, activity is assumed picking up from 2.4 percent in 2003 to 3 percent by 2005. In keeping
with the underlying international scenario, major stimulus should come from exports and spread to domestic investment. Inflation
is set to abate over the projection period. Boosted by price hikes for crude oil and meat (BSE crisis), headline inflation
may peak at 2½ percent in 2001. As these special factors wear off, and with demand and output slackening, the rate of inflation
should fall markedly, before slightly heading up again as from 2004. For the whole period, due to the factors cited, average
inflation at 1.8 percent will be higher than the 1.3 percent p.a. recorded over the previous five years. The trend of employment
will be determined by the pace of growth and by wage developments. It is assumed that the number of jobs will rise by 23,000
or 0.8 percent per year, whereby part-time work will increase above-average following the introduction of new child-care benefits
in 2002. The rate of unemployment (according to Eurostat) will first remain flat at 3.6 percent, before moderating to 3.2
percent by 2005.