Kurt Kratena, Mark Sommer, Gerhard Streicher (WIFO), Simone Salotti, Juan Manuel Valderas Jaramillo (JRC-IPTS)
FIDELIO 2: Overview and Theoretical Foundations of the Second Version of the Fully Interregional Dynamic Econometric Long-term Input-Output Model for the EU 27
Studien, Luxembourg, März 2017, 66 Seiten, http://dx.doi.org/10.2760/313390
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – EC Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
Auftraggeber: Europäische Kommission
This report serves as an update of "FIDELIO 1: Fully Interregional Dynamic Econometric Long-term Input-Output model for the EU 27" by Kratena et al. (2013), i.e., the manual of the first version of the FIDELIO model. FIDELIO fits into the generation of macroeconomic multi-sectoral input-output models whose earliest contributions include the Cambridge MDM (Barker, 1976) and the INFORUM (Almon et al., 1974) models for the UK and the USA, respectively. Such econometric input-output models have grown over time in terms of complexity and scope and are used for macroeconomic modelling purposes alongside other types of general equilibrium models (including DSGE ones). This report explores the theoretical foundations of the latest version of the model, FIDELIO 2 (which has been developed between 2014 and 2016), and contains a description of its main features. With respect to its initial version, the model has been extended in a number of ways. For instance, and without entering into detail at this stage, seven non-EU countries are now included in the model (Brazil, China, India, Japan, Russia, Turkey and the USA) in addition to the 27 EU countries already included in the first version; both trade and household final demand are now modelled in a considerably more complex way than before; there is an environmental block dealing with greenhouse gas emissions, and the base year is 2007 rather than 2005. Thus, it was deemed necessary to present all the new model characteristics in an organic way via the present technical report. The remainder of this report is organised as follows: Section 1 provides a concise macro-overview of FIDELIO 2 which relies very much on the first section of the FIDELIO 1 manual by Kratena et al. (2013). Section 2 presents the economic theories underlying the core blocks of FIDELIO 2. This report serves two main purposes. First, it is an adequate resource for the readers who are interested in the model's main features. Second, it facilitates the process of understanding all the details of FIDELIO 2 for those who want to learn the logic and the theory behind its construction. Such readers are expected to grasp the general structure of the model by reading Section 1, helped by the overview of the model's main economic flows contained in Figure 1. Then, Section 2 goes through the theoretical foundations of the various model blocks.
Keywords:TP_Europa_Impact Konsumenten Modellierung Politikanalyse
Forschungsbereich:Klima-, Umwelt- und Ressourcenökonomie – Regionalökonomie und räumliche Analyse

Verwandte Einträge

WIFO Bulletin, 2015, 20(23), S.266-272
Online seit: 03.12.2015 0:00
We estimate the effects of the Austrian tax reform of 2015-16 by using the econometric input-output model FIDELIO, which features an in-depth treatment of both private and public households' revenues, expenditures, budgets and consumption as well as price transmission. According to the simulations, the reform will, to some extent, succeed in boosting domestic demand, with private consumption rising by almost € 2.5 billion; both net output and GDP will rise perceptibly by € 290 million and € 1.35 billion, respectively. Among the sectors that profit most from the proposed changes in the tax regime are those with high income elasticities (and low import shares): real estate activities, (retail) trade, and financial services. The food production sector aside, manufacturing will experience very modest gains only, as a large share of its products is imported. High income elasticity, however, leads to moderate gains for hotels and restaurants, in spite of a higher value-added tax on hotel services and the upward pressure on prices due to fraud-preventing measures (especially the obligation to introduce cash registers).
Abgeschlossene Forschungsprojekte
Auftraggeber: Europäische Kommission
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
Abgeschlossen: 2015
The main aim of this project is to strengthen and expand an existing econometric input-output model for the European Union member countries (FIDELIO) to be used in policy simulations. This improvement of the features of the current version of FIDELIO comprises the extension to non-EU countries, the inclusion of different income levels of households, the endogenisation of the environmental module and the change of the base year. An additional objective is the further development of the model to be able to run two real policy applications related (but not limited) to the economic, social and environmental impact assessments of Ecodesign regulation and fiscal instruments towards the analysis of the existence of double dividend. The enhancement of the robustness of the model outcomes by means of confidence intervals, sensitivity analyses and possibly Monte Carlo simulations also contributes to the project objectives.
Kurt Kratena, Gerhard Streicher, Umed Temurshoev, Antonio F. Amores, Iñaki Arto, Ignazio Mongelli, Frederik Neuwahl, José-Manuel Rueda-Cantuche, Valeria Andreoni
Studien, Mai 2013, 149 Seiten
Auftraggeber: EC Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Joanneum Research Forschungsgesellschaft mbH
Online seit: 29.05.2013 0:00
In this report we present complete information about the Fully Interregional Dynamic Econometric Long-term Input-Output Model for the EU 27 (FIDELIO 1). First, the macro overview of the model is discussed, which presents the main mechanisms of interactions between various blocks of FIDELIO. The second chapter explains the main economic theories underlying FIDELIO consumption, production and labour market blocks. Here, further econometric approaches for estimation of the parameters of all behavioural equations and their results are presented. Then, derivation of all the necessary base-year data (e.g., various commodity use structure and price structure matrices, trade matrix, base-year residuals, etc.) are discussed in detail. All FIDELIO equations are presented (with discussions) in Chapter 4. Finally, a full description of the data sources is given in the last chapter. It will become clear from this description document that FIDELIO is appropriate for the impact assessment purposes of diverse (economic and/or environmental) policy questions of our times.