Uncertainty in the Euro Area During the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Uncertainty – a state in which assessing future conditions by economic agents is hampered – rose sharply during the current pandemic. A bout of uncertainty can have similar effects like an adverse demand shock, dampening private consumption, investment and, hence, inflation. According to our own estimations, however, the pandemic-induced spike of uncertainty has caused little macroeconomic damage so far. The introduction of PEPP was a quick and decisive action that stopped uncertainty from rising further and probably contained its adverse economic effects.