WIFO-Konjunkturtest
Part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme
of Business and Consumer Surveys
WIFO-Konjunkturtest
Part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme
of Business and Consumer Surveys
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WIFO-Konjunkturampel (economic traffic light)
The results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (business cycle survey) for May show a slight deterioration in business assessments of the economy, which remain in the skeptical range. At –4.1 points (seasonally adjusted), the WIFO economic climate index was down 0.8 points on the previous month (–3.3 points). The overall economic situation assessments showed a cautious improvement (+1.1 points), but remained slightly below the zero line at –1.8 points. Economic expectations, on the other hand, deteriorated (–2.5 points) and remained in the skeptical range at –6.3 points. The economic picture continues to be dominated by the weak industrial economy. Due to the improvement in the situation index, the economic traffic light continues to show "green" despite declining economic expectations.
Economic Sentiment Increases Marginally in the EU and the Euro Area; Employment Expectations Continue to Decline
In May 2024, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) increased marginally in both the EU (+0.3 points to 96.5 points) and the euro area (+0.4 points to 96.0 points). The Employment Expectations Indicator (EEI) continued its downward trend in both areas (EU –0.4 points to 101.2 points, euro area –0.3 points to 101.3 points). Contrary to the ESI, the EEI continued to score above its long-term average.
Credit Conditions of Austrian Companies
The credit questions of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (business cycle survey) allow us to present the assessments and experiences of companies with regard to bank lending. The credit questions are asked quarterly in February, May, August and November.
In May 2024, the banks' willingness to lend (i.e.: the credit hurdle fell) - defined as the balance of the proportion of companies that describe the banks' lending as accommodating (positive values) and the proportion of companies that describe the banks' lending as restrictive (negative values) - improved compared to the previous quarter (+4.6 points) but remained deep in negative territory at –18.2 points. Assessments by company size continue to show differences: the credit hurdle is higher for smaller companies (less than 50 employees) (–21.6 points) than for medium-sized companies (50 to 250 employees –12.3 points) and large companies (more than 250 employees –8.0 points).
The survey results show a decline in demand for credit (–2.2 percentage points compared to the previous quarter), which at 19.6 percent in the aggregate (excluding retail) is now below the long-term average (21.0%). In the construction industry, 21.4 percent of companies reported a need for credit, in manufacturing 16.8 percent, in the service sectors 20.9 percent and in retail 16.4 percent. In terms of company size (excluding retail), 20.3 percent of smaller companies (less than 50 employees) recently reported a need for credit, as did 20.3 percent of medium-sized companies and 19.0 percent of larger companies (more than 250 employees).
The survey results show a decline in demand for credit (–2.2 percentage points compared to the previous quarter), which at 19.6 percent in the aggregate (excluding retail) is now below the long-term average (21.0 percent). In the construction industry, 21.4 percent of companies reported a need for credit, in manufacturing 16.8 percent, in the service sectors 20.9 percent and in retail 16.4 percent. In terms of company size (excluding retail), 20.3 percent of smaller companies (less than 50 employees) recently reported a need for credit, as did 20.3 percent of medium-sized companies and 19.0 percent of larger companies (more than 250 employees).
Of the companies with credit requirements (excluding retail), around 39.3 percent had to cut back on the amount or conditions (27.6 percent reported worse conditions, 3.7 percent lower amount and 8.0 percent worse conditions and lower amount than expected). This figure is still well above the average of the past five years (29.2 percent). Only around 28.0 percent of companies with a need for credit were able to obtain it as expected (5-year average: 46.7 percent). At 33.5 percent, the proportion of companies with credit requirements that did not receive a loan or did not apply for one was also above average (5-year average: 24.2 percent; around 7.4 percent of all companies surveyed) because the loan application was rejected by the bank (7.0 percent), the conditions were unacceptable (14.5 percent) or they did not try to obtain a loan due to lack of opportunity (12.0 percent).
Credit Constraints and Credit Needs
Recent issues: WIFO-Konjunkturtest
Quarterly results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtests
Special issues: WIFO-Konjunkturtest
Recent issues: WIFO-Investitionsbefragung
Contact
For general enquiries, please contact konjunkturtest@wifo.ac.at.