Trump's trade wars hit a new dimension expanding from mini to global trade wars. They target sectors (e.g., aluminium and steel) for the protection of "national security" (according to Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962) and countries (e.g., China) for unfair trade practices (according to Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974). Both legal instruments give the US President the power to impose sanctions and protective measures. Since Trump came in office, he has cancelled most multilateral agreements or projects the USA were previously involved (TTIP, TPP, NAFTA, Paris Climate Agreement, JCPoA). Whereas the US trade conflict with China escalated dramatically and could ultimately – beginning with 1 September 2019 as President Trump has threatened – affect all bilateral trade flows, the tensions with the EU are currently limited to aluminium and steel. However, a trade war with respect to cars could follow if no agreement on an US-EU FTA-light is reached, besides the agreement on increasing the share of duty-free imports of hormone-free beef from the USA, signed on 2 August 2019. We analyse the trade wars already underway (aluminium and steel; USA–China) and possible new conflicts (cars) and agreements (FTA-light) with two methods: 1. a static CGE model and 2. a global dynamic economic macro model. The comprehensive US trade war with China results in the biggest impact for the involved countries, followed by a possible car conflict and an FTA-light agreement.

Die Hochschätzung anhand der Meldungen der im WIFO-Investitionstest erfassten Unternehmen ergibt für 2019 insgesamt eine Expansion der Investitionen um 5,0% gegenüber 2018. Kleine und mittelgroße Betriebe weiten ihre Investitionen dabei stärker aus als Großunternehmen. Insbesondere die Hersteller von langlebigen Konsumgütern und Vorprodukten planen heuer Investitionssteigerungen. Die Investitionen der Hersteller von kurzlebigen Konsumgütern und Kraftfahrzeugen werden voraussichtlich sinken. Für Österreichs Gesamtwirtschaft rechnet das WIFO 2019 mit einem Anstieg der Bruttoanlageinvestitionen um real 2,4%.

The report is an update of a set of labour market indices first developed and tested in 2010 in collaboration with experts of the Vienna Chamber of Labour (AK). The Austrian labour market is examined relative to the other 27 EU countries (including UK) according to the following key dimensions: overall labour market performance, participation of different groups of people, exclusion risks on the labour market, distribution of earnings and redistribution by the welfare state.

Der Bericht aktualisiert das im Jahr 2010 in Kooperation mit Expertinnen und Experten der Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien erstmals implementierte und getestete Set von Arbeitsmarktindizes. Untersucht wird der österreichische Arbeitsmarkt relativ zu den anderen 27 EU-Ländern (einschließlich Vereinigtes Königreich) in den folgenden Bereichen: allgemeine Leistungskraft des Arbeitsmarktes, Erwerbsteilnahme unterschiedlicher Personengruppen, Ausgrenzungsrisiken auf dem Arbeitsmarkt, Verteilung der Erwerbseinkommen und Umverteilung durch den Sozialstaat. Der vorliegende Bericht fasst die aktuellen Ergebnisse der fünf Bereichsindizes zusammen und enthält kartographische Übersichten.

Der Bericht aktualisiert das im Jahr 2010 in Kooperation mit Expertinnen und Experten der Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien erstmals implementierte und getestete Set von Arbeitsmarktindizes. Untersucht wird der österreichische Arbeitsmarkt relativ zu den anderen 27 EU-Ländern in den folgenden Bereichen: allgemeine Leistungskraft des Arbeitsmarktes, Erwerbsteilnahme unterschiedlicher Personengruppen, Ausgrenzungsrisiken auf dem Arbeitsmarkt, Verteilung der Erwerbseinkommen und Umverteilung durch den Sozialstaat.

Die Ergebnisse des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom Juli 2019 zeigen für die Gesamtwirtschaft eine Seitwärtsbewegung der Kon-junktureinschätzungen. Zwischen den Sektoren sind aber markante Unterschiede zu beobachten: Während sich die Konjunktureinschätzung der Unternehmen in den Dienstleistungsbranchen verbessert und in der Bauwirtschaft trotz eines Rückganges im optimistischen Bereich bleibt, geben sie in der Sachgütererzeugung weiter nach.

The economic environment for the Austrian construction industry was very favourable in 2018 with growth rates well above the EU average. The WIFO forecasts indicate that the growth differential will decrease over time, resulting in a slower overall economic expansion by 1.7 percent in 2019. This slowdown is negatively affecting the non-residential construction sectors, above all office construction. But also the housing market appears to have peaked in 2018, with lower growth projections until 2021. Following the European trend, Austrian civil engineering is the segment with the highest growth prospects, mainly due to planned investments in the road and rail network. Although Austrian construction is weakening, all segments of construction are expected to continue to grow until 2021.

The latest construction market forecasts – presented at the 87th Euroconstruct conference on 12-13 June 2019 – confirm the slowdown in European construction dynamics. Construction growth in the 19 Euroconstruct countries will continue until 2021, albeit with lower rates. From a regional perspective, the Eastern European countries have the best prospects. Among the Western European countries, construction output is growing most in Spain, Ireland and Portugal – these are the countries that were hit most strongly by the economic crisis. Netherlands and Norway, too, show robust growth prospects. The Euroconstruct Country Report provides detailed information about the construction market trends and its fundamentals in each of the 19 Euroconstruct member countries until 2021. The forecasts and analyses are presented on the country level and are based on a comparable harmonised dataset for the major construction sectors and indicators. The macroeconomic framework conditions are included additionally. – With contributions by Anders Bjerre, Christian Brander, Paul Donadieu de Lavit, Ludwig Dorffmeister, Antonio Coimbra, Tomáš Dubovec, Josep Ramon Fontana, David Frič, Anne Kathrin Funk, Anna Gáspár, Paul Groot, James Hastings, Annette Hughes, Nathalie Kouassi, Michael Klien, Vladimir Lenko, Jean-Pierre Liebaert, Erwan Le Saint, Nejra Macic, Pascal Marlier, David McNamara, Renaud Muller, Mattias Pettersson, Markku Riihimäki, Radislav Semenov, Mariusz Sochacki, Antonella Stemperini, Michael Weingärtler.

Growth in construction output continues until 2021 in the 19 Euroconstruct member countries. Nevertheless, growth rates are decreasing and in one building division or another, downturns are becoming more likely. The housing market is expected to exhibit the weakest performance among the segments. Two out of five countries expect a decline in new residential construction in 2020, which is typically driven by the segment of new-built housing. Furthermore, the expected maturing of the business cycle will affect the non-residential construction market negatively, putting pressure on the office and industrial sector. Although growth in civil engineering is also declining in the forecasting period, it is estimated to be the segment with the highest growth potential. A high level of public investment especially in transport infrastructure is stimulating this market segment. The detailed results and forecasts were presented to a professional audience at the 87th Euroconstruct conference in Rome. The Euroconstruct Summary Report provides a macroeconomic analysis and an overview of the European construction industry by sectors (housing, non-residential construction and civil engineering; new and renovation, respectively) up to 2021. – With contributions by Nejra Macic, Antonio Mura, Bjorn-Eric Oye, Markku Riihimäki, Kjell Senneset, Mariusz Sochacki, Antonella Stemperini.