WIFO Working Papers

Discussion papers by WIFO staff, consultants and guests – As of 2006 available online only – Free download

WIFO Working Papers are not peer reviewed and are not necessarily based on a coordinated position of WIFO. The authors were informed about the Guidelines for Good Scientific Practice of the Austrian Agency for Research Integrity (ÖAWI), in particular with regard to the documentation of all elements necessary for the replicability of the results.

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WIFO Working Papers, 2021, (636), 93 pages
Commissioned by: Klima- und Energiefonds
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research – International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis – University of Graz, Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change
Online since: 09.07.2021 0:00
In order to meet the climate targets as set out in the Paris agreement – i.e., to stay "well below 2 °C" of global warming – a transformation of the socio-economic system towards climate neutrality is required. This transformation is connected to radical changes in most aspects of our daily lives, especially with respect to mobility and housing. This poses the questions of how well-being might change due to these changes and ultimately how to quantitatively measure such changes. In the present paper we make a first steps towards answering these fundamental questions. We do so by making use of the concept of energy services, or "functionalities", which take a demand and sufficiency perspective. To quantify effects, we operationalise this concept by using and extending existing macroeconomic models (Input-Output and Computable General Equilibrium). In terms of results we provide standard economic indicators but contrast them with – in our view – more relevant indicators, such as a more comprehensive measure for well-being, as well as distributional effects and co-benefits. Our results clearly show increases in well-being emerging from the climate neutral transformation, whereas conventional indicators such as GDP are declining. We thus demonstrate the importance of looking at the "right" indicators, when assessing socio-economic effects of climate policy and at the same time provide a concrete alternative to state-of-the-art modelling approaches.
WIFO Working Papers, 2021, (635), 41 pages
Commissioned by: Klima- und Energiefonds
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research – International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis – University of Graz, Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change
Online since: 09.07.2021 0:00
In this paper we take up the challenge to integrate new aspects into macroeconomic modelling and to consider economic activities from an outcome-oriented perspective, so called functionalities. The basic idea is, that functionalities lie behind the demand for commodities and services and therefore are the actual reason for economic activities. Functionalities describe (basic) human needs, such as housing, nutrition, or mobility, and are determinants of human well-being. A crucial aspect of functionalities is the interaction between stocks and flows. The paper presents the operationalisation of functionalities within the framework of an Input-Output (IO) model. Three extensions of the IOT are performed: Firstly, an appropriate allocation of energy supply, transformation and demand to sectors is made. This allows linking the monetary structure with physical units of the total energy and useful energy balances. Secondly, greenhouse gas emissions and other material consumption were additionally allocated to sectoral production. Thirdly, groups of goods of private and public consumption as well as exports were allocated to specific functionalities.
WIFO Working Papers, 2021, (634), 43 pages
Commissioned by: Klima- und Energiefonds
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research – International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis – University of Graz, Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change
Online since: 09.07.2021 0:00
In this working paper we place scenarios of Austria's transition to a green economy in a global context of efforts of international community to limit global warming to the levels outlined in the Paris Agreement. To this end we propose a method of deriving robust and physically grounded budgets of Austria's cumulative GHG emissions that are consistent with the 1.5 °C and the 2 °C warming targets of Paris agreement, respectively. These budgets are based on the most recent estimates of carbon budgets for the 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming targets and delineate a "space for manoeuvre" within which Austria's green transformation must take place if it is to make a desired contribution to humanity's climate-change mitigation efforts. We also derive reference pathways for Austria's GHG emissions that are in line with the 1.5 °C and the 2 °C warming targets, and which inform us about the necessary emission reductions in any given year, e.g., in 2050. We also demonstrate how budgets of cumulative national GHG emissions and corresponding reference emission pathways can be downscaled to provide boundary conditions for a novel approach to modelling economic transformations based on the concept of functionalities. First, we establish how much of GHG emissions is currently caused by providing functionalities Access, Shelter and Other Life Support in Austria. Next, with help of existing EU-wide scenarios of green transition that resolve multiple economic sectors, we assess expected cumulative emissions from sectors not covered by these functionalities. Finally, we subtract these cumulative emissions from the budget of Austria's total GHG emissions and distribute the remainder between the considered functionalities.
WIFO Working Papers, 2021, (633), 35 pages
Commissioned by: Klima- und Energiefonds
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research – International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis – University of Graz, Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change
Online since: 09.07.2021 0:00
In the context of research on long-run transformations, such as the low-carbon energy transformation, research interest is growing on how to define and measure human well-being meaningfully. The working paper provides a thorough discussion of the literature on well-being and human needs in the context of energy consumption and confronts this scientific discourse with the concept of energy services, or functionalities. Based on a thorough literature review and a comprehensive stakeholder consultation process, we show, that energy services represent the crucial link between energy use (and related GHG emissions) and human need satisfaction.
WIFO Working Papers, 2021, (632), 29 pages
Commissioned by: European Commission-Framework Programme
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research – Statistics Netherlands – Istituto Nazionale di Statistica – Lunaria Associazione di Promozione Sociale e Impresa Sociale – United Nations University – Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology – Fondation Nationale des Sciences Politiques – Scuola superiore Sant'Anna – Statistics Austria – University College London – University of Bielefeld – University of Ljubljana – University of Tartu – Centre for European Economic Research – Katholieke Universiteit Leuven (Belgium)
Online since: 05.07.2021 0:00
This paper examines the association between participation in global value chains and financial globalisation measured by international net and capital flows. The results show that financial globalisation and the rise of global value chains are related but not two sides of the same coin. In fact, we find that GVC participation is positively associated with equity capital flows but negatively associated with debt capital flows. We also study the association of GVC participation and capital flows with aggregate economic outcomes. The findings show that both GVC participation and equity flows affect the share of mortgage and business credit. But we uncover also important differences in the impact of capital flows between advanced and emerging countries. Regarding changes in the economic structure our results suggest a positive association of both GVC participation and equity inflows on the manufacturing share, while debt inflows are primarily associated with a growth of the service sector in advanced economies, but not in emerging and developing countries. The finding that there is no strong association between the globalisation indicators and innovation suggests that the fragmentation of value chains leads to functional specialisation in tasks and tends to weaken the link between innovation and production at country level. We find in addition that a higher GVC participation is weakly associated with a higher growth of government revenue, as are debt flows but only in advances countries. This finding suggests also that debt flows were redirected primarily into safe countries in advanced countries.
WIFO Working Papers, 2021, (631), 34 pages
Commissioned by: European Commission-Framework Programme
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research – Statistics Netherlands – Istituto Nazionale di Statistica – Lunaria Associazione di Promozione Sociale e Impresa Sociale – United Nations University – Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology – Fondation Nationale des Sciences Politiques – Scuola superiore Sant'Anna – Statistics Austria – University College London – University of Bielefeld – University of Ljubljana – University of Tartu – Centre for European Economic Research – Katholieke Universiteit Leuven (Belgium)
Online since: 05.07.2021 0:00
This paper examines broad patterns of structural change for a large number of countries on a global scale and for a smaller set of advanced industrialised countries over time. The findings show that structural change over the past decades followed the three-sector hypothesis. The past decades were characterised by the rise of the service sector, driven especially by business services and non-market service. At the same time as manufacturing sectors are declining in terms of shares, they remain the sectors with the highest contributions to aggregate productivity growth. An analysis of determinants of structural change confirms that country competencies related to institutional quality, knowledge generation and industrial application of the new knowledge are an important driving force of structural changes towards services, but that they have a heterogeneous impact on manufacturing subsectors. High technology manufacturing share seems not to be characterised by a tendency to decline with the development of country competencies. Broad policy implications are discussed.
Lukas Schmoigl (WIFO), Thomas König
Erfolgreiche Registerforschung in Österreich. Welchen Mehrwert generiert die reglementierte Öffnung von Registerdaten für die wissenschaftliche Forschung? Eine Darstellung anhand von drei Beispielen (Successful Register Research in Austria. What Added Value Does the Regulated Opening of Register Data Generate for Scientific Research? A Presentation Based on Three Examples)
WIFO Working Papers, 2021, (630), 17 pages
Online since: 02.06.2021 0:00
Der Nutzen eines strukturierten Zugangs zu Registern der öffentlichen Verwaltung für Gesellschaft und Politik ist weitreichend, geht jedoch oft in der öffentlichen Diskussion unter. Der Arbeitsauftrag für den vorliegenden Bericht bestand also darin, eine Potentialanalyse durchzuführen, d. h., drei konkrete Beispiele auszuformulieren, in denen wissenschaftlicher und gesellschaftlicher Mehrwert von der Forschung zugänglichen Registern dargelegt und veranschaulicht werden kann. Im Zentrum stehen dabei konkrete gesellschaftliche Probleme, die mit der Forschung adressiert wurden, sowie tatsächliche und mögliche Impacts der Ergebnisse der Forschung auf Politik, Gesellschaft und den Wissenschaftsstandort Österreich. Dies soll illustrieren, warum der Zugang zu Registerdaten für die Wissenschaft von großer Bedeutung ist, wo Wissenslücken bestehen und was mittels des Zugangs zu Registerdaten noch erforscht werden könnte.
54/2021
Commissioned by: European Commission-Framework Programme
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research – Statistics Netherlands – Istituto Nazionale di Statistica – Lunaria Associazione di Promozione Sociale e Impresa Sociale – United Nations University – Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology – Fondation Nationale des Sciences Politiques – Scuola superiore Sant'Anna – Statistics Austria – University College London – University of Bielefeld – University of Ljubljana – University of Tartu – Centre for European Economic Research – Katholieke Universiteit Leuven (Belgium)
This paper uses the supply tables underlying WIOT data to explore the provision of services by manufacturing. The service shares differ substantially across countries and sectors, while they remain largely stable over time. Findings from a latent class analysis reveal that servitization in-crease with labour productivity. The service intensities in the sectoral production mix of broadly defined manufacturing sectors are lower in countries with higher manufacturing shares. This holds for both catching-up and developed economies. Yet, servitization is largely unrelated to productivity and employment growth. We therefore argue that the degree of servitization is contingent on and an attribute of the respective economic model in which a sector operates.
WIFO Working Papers, 2021, (629), 22 pages
Online since: 18.05.2021 0:00
This study analyses the extent of fiscal risk sharing and redistribution for Austria from 2000 to 2019. Overall, fiscal policy smooths about one tenth of regional GDP shocks. While this is primarily driven by the federal budget and social security funds, there is also a significant contribution of the revenue sharing scheme between the federal government and subnational governments. Most interestingly, the case of the Austrian revenue sharing system shows that there are intergovernmental transfer schemes which achieve risk sharing without much redistribution. This is due to mechanisms within this system which grant high-income states shares in federal revenue which are higher than their respective population shares. Furthermore, due to other mechanisms, the Austrian fiscal system is overall highly redistributive between states, but net contributions vary substantially over time.
Ein Ausblick auf die Treibhausgasemissionen in Österreich 2021 und 2022 (An Outlook on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Austria in 2021 and 2022)
WIFO Working Papers, 2021, (628), 33 pages
Online since: 19.04.2021 9:00
In dem vorliegenden Bericht wird ein methodischer Zugang vorgestellt, der es gestattet, die Auswirkungen von Änderungen der Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Österreich auf die Emission von Treibhausgasen (THG) zeitnah sichtbar zu machen. Dieses Werkzeug, dessen Kern die Input-Output-Tabelle der österreichischen Volkswirtschaft ist, wird angewendet, um die Auswirkungen der COVID-19-Krise im Jahr 2020 und die vom WIFO prognostizierte Erholung der Wirtschaft in den Jahren 2021 und 2022 auf die THG-Emissionen zu bestimmen. Den Schätzungen zu Folge sind die THG-Emissionen im Jahr 2020 um mehr als 7% im Vergleich zum Jahr 2019 gesunken. Im Jahr 2021 dürften sie gegenüber 2020 um 2% ansteigen und der Anstieg 2022 gegenüber 2021 wird 3,7% betragen. Im Jahr 2022 dürften die Treibhausgasemissionen folglich noch um knapp 2 Mio. t niedriger als 2019 sein und somit etwas niedriger als 1990, dem Basisjahr des Kyoto-Protokolls (78,4 Mio. t. CO2-Äquivalente). In den Berechnungen sind Landnutzung, deren Änderung und Forstwirtschaft ausgeklammert. Verglichen mit der WIFO-Prognose zum Wirtschaftswachstum im Lockdown-Szenario für 2021 von +1,5% und +4,7% im Jahr 2022 weicht der erwartete Anstieg der Emissionen somit deutlich ab. Die unterschiedlichen Änderungsraten sind darauf zurückzuführen, dass die Herstellung von Waren, die emissionsintensive Sektoren umfasst, bereits 2021 stärker wachsen werden und Sektoren mit geringeren Emissionen wie die Gastronomie und Beherbergung erst 2022 aufholen werden.
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