WIFO Working Papers

Discussion papers by WIFO staff, consultants and guests – As of 2006 available online only – Free download

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WIFO Working Papers, 2019, (591), 50 pages
Online since: 25.11.2019 0:00
This paper studies the effects of hosting Olympic Games on the regional economy in the short- and long-run. For identification, runners-up in the Olympic bidding process are used to construct the counterfactual for Olympic host regions. In the short-run, hosting Summer Olympics boosts regional GDP per capita by about 3 to 4 percentage points relative to the national level in the year of the event and the year before. There is also evidence for positive long-run effects, but results on the latter are not statistically robust. In contrast, Winter Olympics do not have a positive impact on host regions. If anything, they lead to a temporal decline in regional GDP per capita in the years around the event.
WIFO Working Papers, 2019, (590), 18 pages
Online since: 10.11.2019 0:00
In den Wirtschaftswissenschaften lassen sich zwei Theorietypen unterscheiden: Die "idealistische Ökonomie" geht von einem Idealzustand aus und untersucht die Bedingungen, unter denen dieser erreicht werden kann wie die Eigenschaften des "homo oeconomicus". Die „realistische Ökonomie“ geht vom Konkreten aus und berücksichtigt (daher) die "Polaritäten" des "homo humanus", der seine Erwartungen unter Unsicherheit bildet. Die Abfolge von Prosperität und Krise ("langer Zyklus") wird durch die Abfolge in der Dominanz realistischer bzw. idealistischer Theorien geprägt. So diente der Keynesianismus im "golden age" der 1950er- und 1960er-Jahre als "Navigationskarte" der Politik, die nachfolgende Krisenphase wurde umgekehrt von der restaurierten Neoklassik geprägt. Sie legitimierte die Liberalisierung der Finanzmärkte, deren "manisch-depressive" Schwankungen die Investitionsbereitschaft der Unternehmer und damit das Wirtschaftswachstum nachhaltig dämpften. Zusätzlich trugen die damit verbundenen Bewertungsänderungen von Vermögen und Verbindlichkeiten wesentlich zum Entstehen von Schulden- und Finanzkrisen bei.
WIFO Working Papers, 2019, (589), 42 pages
Online since: 31.10.2019 0:00
We examine the gender wage gap in Austria from 2005 to 2017 using data from EU-SILC. The raw wage gap declined from 18.6 log points in 2005 to 14.9 log points in 2017. We use standard decomposition techniques that correct for differences in the distributions of human capital and other variables between men and women. All calculated decompositions indicate that the unexplained part of the gender wage gap decreased substantially over the last ten years. The decrease of the unexplained gender wage gap between the largest gap in this period (2006) and the most recent gap (2017) ranges from 3.7 log points to 8.5 log points depending on the decomposition approach. Using the approach developed by Neumark (1988), the corrected wage gap shrank from 8.7 log points in 2005 (8.8 log points in 2006) to 5.1 log points in 2017. The main reason for the decline in wage differences is the relative improvement of women's observed and unobserved characteristics.
WIFO Working Papers, 2019, (588), 25 pages
Online since: 24.10.2019 0:00
John Maynard Keynes war ein Ökonom, der stets zwischen der Welt der Theorien und der Realität pendelte, er prüfte und verwarf theoretische Annahmen aufgrund seiner Beobachtungen, die er wiederum als Ausgangspunkte für die Entwicklung neuer Theorien nutzte. Gleichzeitig betrieb er als Praktiker keine andere Art von Aktivitäten mit solcher Intensität und Kontinuität wie Finanzgeschäfte aller Art. Diese Erfahrungen machten für Keynes klar, dass ökonomisches Verhalten essentiell durch Unsicherheit, Emotionen und soziale Interaktion geprägt wird. In seiner Darstellung der Handels- und Preisdynamik auf Finanzmärkten (sie nimmt die wichtigsten Entwicklungen seit den 1970er-Jahren vorweg) entwirft er ein zum "homo oeconomicus" in radikalem Gegensatz stehendes Menschenbild. Allerdings hat er diese realitätsnahe Mikro-Fundierung seiner Makroökonomie nicht theoretisch ausformuliert, denn dann hätte er das gesamte Theoriegebäude der Neoklassik explizit verwerfen müssen. Dies aber hätte dem Hauptziel seiner "General Theory" widersprochen, seine "fellow economists" mit seiner Beschäftigungs-, Zins- und Geldtheorie dort abzuholen, wo sie sich befanden.
WIFO Working Papers, 2019, (587), 30 pages
Online since: 24.08.2019 0:00
The need to reform EU funding and recent political developments such as Brexit and the withdrawal from the USA from the 2015 Paris climate agreement could revitalise the debate about the introduction of border carbon adjustments (BCA) for the European emission trading system (ETS). The introduction of a BCA would allow the EU to phase out current carbon leakage provisions of the ETS and to auction off all emission allowances, thus rendering the ETS a more effective unilateral tool to price and reduce carbon emissions. By using a dynamic new Keynesian (DYNK) model, we estimate that potential revenues of a BCA for the ETS would generate substantial and stable revenues. Given different assumptions about the development of the carbon intensity of non-EU production and different BCA designs we find that estimated revenues would suffice to finance between a third and all of current EU expenditures by the year 2027, thus allowing member countries to reduce their current contributions to the EU budget accordingly. Administered at the EU borders a BCA would represent a sustainability-oriented instrument to finance the EU allowing EU countries to cut more distortionary taxes such as those on labour, thereby increasing growth- and employment-friendliness of taxation. The proposed measure could thus contribute to tackle both environmental and fiscal challenges currently facing the EU.
WIFO Working Papers, 2019, (586), 26 pages
Online since: 19.08.2019 0:00
In this paper we propose a Bayesian estimation approach for a spatial autoregressive logit specification. Our approach relies on recent advances in Bayesian computing, making use of Pólya-Gamma sampling for Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo algorithms. The proposed specification assumes that the involved log-odds of the model follow a spatial autoregressive process. Pólya-Gamma sampling involves a computationally efficient treatment of the spatial autoregressive logit model, allowing for extensions to the existing baseline specification in an elegant and straightforward way. In a Monte Carlo study we demonstrate that our proposed approach significantly outperforms existing spatial autoregressive probit specifications both in terms of parameter precision and computational time. The paper moreover illustrates the performance of the proposed spatial autoregressive logit specification using pan-European regional data on foreign direct investments. Our empirical results highlight the importance of accounting for spatial dependence when modelling European regional FDI flows.
WIFO Working Papers, 2019, (585), 35 pages
Online since: 12.08.2019 0:00
Der "Armutsindex" bildet erstmals die Lebensumstände auf kleinräumiger Ebene in den 2.122 Wohngemeinden in Österreich für den Zeitraum 2010 bis 2017 quantitativ ab, indem er die auf Armut und soziale Ausgrenzung einwirkenden Faktoren wie Einkommen, Erwerbsintensität, Alter und Qualifikation in einer Indexzahl bündelt. Aus diesem Aggregat lassen sich Rückschlüsse auf die Lebensumstände auf Wohngemeindeebene in Österreich ziehen. Nicht nur werden die zwischen städtischen und ländlichen Regionen bzw. dicht und dünn besiedelten Gebieten unterschiedlichen Lebensbedingungen aufgezeigt, zugleich wird auch Einblick in die Heterogenität innerhalb der ländlichen Regionen geboten, wie der Blick auf die peripheren ländlichen Regionen auf der einen Seite und die zentralen ländlichen Räume im Umland von Zentren auf der anderen Seite zeigt.
WIFO Working Papers, 2019, (584), 38 pages
Online since: 30.07.2019 0:00
Trade in services is often hampered by domestic administrative barriers, even when countries are members of the same regional trade agreement. We exploit a large reform in the European Union (the EU Service Directive) aimed at reducing such administrative hurdles in cross-border service provision to estimate its effects on service trade. We employ a difference-in-difference strategy and a Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML) panel approach to estimate gravity equations with multiple fixed effects. On average, the reform increased intra-EU trade in targeted services between a lower bound of 27 percent and an upper bound of 55 percent, translating into an overall welfare increase between 0.35 and 1.04 percent. This effect of the reform on service trade is corroborated by several robustness and placebo checks. Finally, a disaggregated analysis reveals significant differences between countries and service sectors.
WIFO Working Papers, 2019, (583), 37 pages
Online since: 12.06.2019 0:00
This paper analyses the determinants of aggregate per-capita investments into the telecom sector. We provide results of panel econometric estimates for EU and OECD countries covering the period from 2005 to 2013. The findings show a positive effect of infrastructure-based competition between xDSL broadband and cable-TV broadband subscriptions on investments. We use cross-country variance in open access regulations to examine their effect on investments and find a negative effect for bitstream regulations. The regression results are used to assess the magnitude of these factors, thereby providing valuable inputs to the policy debate on broadband promotion.
WIFO Working Papers, 2019, (582), 59 pages
Online since: 29.05.2019 0:00
This study presents in detail the concept of a financial transaction tax (FTT) and the theoretical and empirical evidence in favour and against introducing it, the potential revenues, different implementation designs and its ability to correct various market failures. We analyse the benefits and challenges of introducing a tax on financial transactions, putting special focus on the introduction of such a tax on a world-wide scale. For a number of reasons, international cooperation is deemed a central prerequisite for an efficient FTT. The purpose of the tax is to raise substantial revenues and help dampen excessive financial market speculation and market volatility. An FTT would ensure that the financial sector contributes more substantially to government revenues. In its optimal form, the tax would be broad-based and there will be no financial instrument types exempted. In a second step, we analyse from a political economy perspective the prospects, the current status, and the lessons learnt from the European discussion on the implementation of an FTT. Finally, we calculate the revenue potential of a global FTT and report how much revenues would accrue to specific countries. We estimate that the tax, if imposed globally and taking into account still evasion, relocation and lock-in effects, can bring significant revenues – between 237.9 and 418.8 billion $ annually. The baseline case delivers 326.9 billion $ overall for the global economy, which corresponds to 0.43 percent of global GDP. These are lower bounds for potential revenues due to missing data on a number of financial instrument types. For specific countries, in the baseline case this would result in 72.57 billion $ annual potential revenues for the USA (0.37 percent of GDP), 119.46 billion $ for the European Union (0.69 percent of GDP), 10.00 billion $ for Germany (0.27 percent of GDP), 9.99 billion $ for France (0.39 percent of GDP) and 19.99 billion $ for Japan (0.41 percent of GDP).
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