Uncertainty Weighs on Economic Expectations

The index of current situation assessments for the economy as a whole rose by 0.2 points in February but remained below the zero line at –4.1 points. In the manufacturing sector, which is particularly important for the economy, the situation index rose slightly (+1.0 points), but at –21.1 points were still well below the zero line that separates positive from negative situation assessments. In the construction industry, the situation index rose (+4.4 points) and, at –1.3 points, was once again closer to the zero line. In the services sector, on the other hand, the situation index fell slightly (–1.3 points) but remained in positive territory at 3.3 points. The situation index also rose in the retail sector (+1.8 points) and was above the zero line at 5.7 points.

The index of business expectations for the overall economy lost 3.4 points in February and, at –9.6 points, was back below the zero line that separates negative from positive economic expectations. In the retail sector, the expectations index lost 2.0 points and remained skeptical at –12.3 points. In the services sector, the expectations index lost 5.0 points and, at –5.4 points, was again more clearly below the zero line. There was an improvement in the construction industry (+1.5 points). At –0.2 points, the expectations index was at the zero line. In the manufacturing sector, the expectations index fell in February because of the high level of uncertainty (–2.8 points) and, at –19.0 points, remained in the range of pessimistic economic expectations: production and business situation expectations continued to cloud over and remained very skeptical.