Improvement in Economic Forecasts Despite Continued High Uncertainty

The index of current assessments rose by 6.9 points in April and was noticeably in positive territory at 27.2 points. This increase is not only due to the service sector, where the index improved by 8.7 points and signalled economic confidence at 30.6 points. The situation index also improved in retail trade (+4.0 points). However, the index was still in negative territory at –7.3 points. In construction, the situation assessments continued to rise (+5.0 points). At 45.5 points, the situation index for the construction industry was very high in the confident range. The index also rose in manufacturing (+5.4 points) and was clearly in positive territory at 26.9 points.

The index of business expectations (seasonally adjusted) gained momentum again in April (+6.3 points) and at 21.6 points was clearly above the zero line separating negative from positive economic expectations. In the retail sector, the expectations index gained significantly (+8.9 points). At –3.2 points, it was still in negative territory but noticeably above the long-term average. The expectations index also rose significantly in the service sectors (+6.9 points) and at 24.6 points was at its highest level in more than 30 years. In the construction industry, too, the expectations index rose further (+6.3 points) to a new record level of 46.5 points. This increase is not least due to the development of construction prices. The manufacturing sector also saw an increase in the expectations index (+5.1 points). At 17.1 points, it was clearly above the zero line, although uncertainty about the future development of the business situation remained high.