Economic Expectations Cloud Over

The current situation index lost 7.0 points in July but remained in positive territory at 16.9 points. The situation index in the manufacturing sector lost particularly significant ground (–9.7 points compared to the previous month), but at 16.3 points continues to indicate a slightly above-average economic situation. The decline in the construction industry was much weaker. The situation index lost 1.2 points and, at 28.6 points, continues to signal above-average construction activity. In the retail trade the situation index fell by 3.5 points and at –8.1 points is in the range of sceptical economic assessments. In the service sectors the index lost 7.3 points compared to the previous month but remained above average with a value of 20.0 points.

The business expectations index also lost momentum in July (–5.3 points) and stood at 4.2 points, close to the zero line that separates negative from positive economic expectations. In the retail sector, the expectations index lost 4.7 points and was clearly in negative territory at –18.3 points. The expectations index also lost further ground in the service sectors (–5.9 points), but still remained in positive territory at 4.6 points. In the construction industry the expectations index suffered only a slight decline (–1.0 points) and at 36.0 points continues to be in the optimistic range, which is probably due to the high price expectations. However, business situation expectations in the construction industry are now at negative levels. In the manufacturing sector, too, there was a marked decline in the expectations index (–6.0 points). The index was close to zero at 0.5 points.