Economic Forecasts Improve, but Remain Cautious

The index of current situation assessments for the economy as a whole rose by 0.3 points in June but remained below the zero line at –3.4 points. In manufacturing, the situation index lost some of its momentum (–0.9 points) following the significant increase in the previous month and, at –14.1 points, remains well below the zero line that separates positive from negative situation assessments. In the construction industry, the situation index gained 1.6 points and, at –0.7 points, is now only just in the sceptical range. In the services sector, the situation index remained almost unchanged (–0.1 points) and was still just in positive territory at 0.8 points. In the retail sector, the situation index improved (+1.6 points) and was in positive territory at 5.3 points.

The index of business expectations for the economy as a whole rose in June (+1.1 points), but at –4.3 points remained below the zero line that separates negative from positive economic expectations. In the retail sector, the expectations index fell slightly (–0.3 points) and, at –12.1 points, was in the area of sceptical economic expectations. In the services sector, the expectations index gained 4.5 points, returning to the zero line at –0.1 points. There was a slight deterioration in the construction industry (–0.6 points). At 0.6 points, the expectations index was just above the zero line. In the manufacturing sector, which is important for the economy, the expectations index fell in June (–3.9 points) and, at –10.5 points, was again slightly lower in the area of sceptical economic expectations.