MTIC Gap 2026: Update of the Intrastat-based Methodology

Fraud and non-compliane with value added tax (VAT) rules results in substantial revenue losses. One form of VAT non-compliance that warrants particular attention is missing trader intra-Community (MTIC) fraud. The aim of this study is to collect and analyse economic data as the basis for estimating VAT revenues lost due to MTIC fraud, including identifying patterns in goods and periods most affected. The MTIC gap will be estimated using and, where necessary, revising the methodology developed in previous studies based on Intrastat mirror statistics and classification techniques. The validation and refinement of the findings will be achieved by comparing them with the experience and insights gathered from member countries tax administrations, resolving discrepancies where they arise. The aim is to deliver actionable results, allowing member countries to better target their MTIC risk management strategies using evidence-based insights on affected products and time periods. Additionally, targeted case studies will be conducted that provide additional insights into MTIC fraud dynamics, illustrate practical applications of the methodology, and support interpretation of the quantitative results.