Austrian Agriculture 2010-2030. Consequences of Measures to Mitigate Greenhouse Gases

The report presents forecasts on the production of the Austrian agricultural sector until the year 2030 taking into account policy measures to mitigate greenhouse gas emission. A detailed partial equilibrium model of Austrian agriculture is used to carry out the quantitative analysis. Production changes are driven by externally given prices and politically determined restrictions on land and input use. Price trends are based on projections of OECD and FAO from mid-2010. The results show a slight increase in cattle production which is due to the abandonment of the milk quota regime, to be expected in 2015. Following historical trends, a reduction of agricultural land is assumed to prevail over the next decades.