Strong Cyclical Upswing Losing Momentum. Economic Outlook for 2011 and 2012

The business cycle upturn in Austria is set to continue. Lively global demand is driving up exports, and also investment in machinery and equipment should post strong gains over the forecast period. Short-term indicators nevertheless point to some slackening during the remainder of the year. The expansion of the world economy loses steam under the impact of higher raw material and energy prices, a more restrictive stance of monetary policy in some emerging markets, and the continued burden on private households in the USA. The crisis in the euro area is adding to uncertainty on the part of companies and consumers. For the whole year 2011, WIFO expects GDP to grow by around 3.0 percent, followed by +1.8 percent in 2012. External cyclical risks have increased over the last few months.