Empirica – Journal of European Economics

Sponsored by the Austrian Economic Association and the Austrian Institute of Economic Research

Empirica publishes empirical and theoretical work on all economic aspects of European Integration. The topics may range from all challenges concerning the deepening of the European Union (Single Market, Lisbon Agenda, EMU) to enlargement and the external relations of the EU (globalisation).

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Gabriel Felbermayr (WIFO), Hendrik Mahlkow, Alexander Sandkamp
Cutting Through the Value Chain: The Long-run Effects of Decoupling the East from the West
Empirica, 2023, 50(1), S.75-108, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-022-09561-w
With ever-increasing political tensions between China and Russia on one side and the EU and the USA on the other, it only seems a matter of time until protectionist policies cause a decoupling of global value chains. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium trade model calibrated with the latest version of the GTAP database to simulate the effect of such a decoupling – implemented by doubling non-tariff barriers – between the two blocks on trade and welfare. Imposing import barriers almost completely eliminates bilateral imports. In addition, changes in price levels lead to higher imports and lower exports of the imposing country group from and to the rest of the world. The targeted country group increases exports to the rest of the world and reduces imports. Welfare falls in all countries involved, suggesting that governments should strive to cooperate rather than turn away from each other. By imposing a trade war on Russia, the political West could inflict severe damage on the Russian economy because of the latter's smaller relative economic size.
Keywords:Trade, Non-tariff barriers, Global value chains, Quantitative trade model, China, Russia, European Union, TP_Ukraine
Forschungsbereich:Ohne Forschungsgruppenzuordnung

Managing Editor

Univ.-Prof. MMag. Dr. Harald Oberhofer

Funktion: Ökonom (Senior Economist), Editor-in-Chief Empirica
Forschungsgruppe: Industrie-, Innovations- und internationale Ökonomie