The forecast is based on the premise that both the crude oil price and the euro exchange rate will climb to their highest levels in 2005, after which they will fall off again. Accordingly, crude oil (Brent) should cost 42 $ per barrel in 2005 and go down to 36 $ by 2007. The euro exchange rate should be at 1.34 $ in 2005, to be followed by a drop to 1.15 $ by 2009. Subject to these conditions, global trade should expand by an average of 6.6 percent p.a. and global production should grow by 3.2 percent p.a. between 2004 and 2009, i.e., accelerate by ½ percentage point each compared to the period of 1999-2004. The US economy will continue to achieve a better growth rate (+3.1 percent) than the performance of the EU 15 (+2.2 percent), while growth will be slowest in Germany and Japan (+1.4 percent p.a. each). In the new EU member states, GDP is expected to expand by 4.4 percent a year, or at double the rate of the EU 15. On a global scale, economic growth should be highest in China and India.