Prognose für 1991. Impulse aus deutscher Wiedervereinigung mildern Konjunkturrückgang (Economic Outlook for 1990 and 1991: Stimulus from German Unification Cushions Cyclical Slowdown)
Bis zum Herbst entwickelten sich Nachfrage und Produktion wie erwartet kräftig. Die Prognose für das Wirtschaftswachstum 1990
bleibt daher mit +4½% aufrecht. Auch die Schätzung der übrigen wirtschaftspolitischen Eckdaten erfordert kaum Korrekturen.
Daß Österreich nunmehr in den Einfluß des internationalen Konjunkturabschwungs gerät, zeichnet sich in den vorauseilenden
Indikatoren schon deutlich ab. Darüber hinaus bergen die Lage auf dem Rohölmarkt, die Übergangskrise in den ehemaligen Oststaaten
und die Labilität der internationalen Finanzmärkte erhebliche Risiken. Sie sind in den letzten Monaten eher noch größer geworden.
Keywords:Prognose für 1991. Impulse aus deutscher Wiedervereinigung mildern Konjunkturrückgang; Economic Outlook for 1990 and 1991:
Stimulus from German Unification Cushions Cyclical Slowdown
Forschungsbereich:Makroökonomie und öffentliche Finanzen
Sprache:Deutsch
Economic Outlook for 1990 and 1991: Stimulus from German Unification Cushions Cyclical Slowdown
Much as expected, demand and output in Austria remained firm throughout 1990. The forecast for annual growth of real GDP is
maintained at 4½ percent. Also, projections for other major variables are broadly confirmed by recent developments. Consumer
price inflation will likely average 3¼ percent, unemployment is rising to almost 5½ percent of the dependent labour force
and the current account remains in small surplus. Forward looking indicators like the inflow of orders to industry and survey
data on business confidence signal a weakening of activity in 1991, in line with the international trend. Domestic demand
will expand at a slower pace. The once-and-for-all boost to net disposable incomes and private consumption from the tax reform
is levelling off. However, settlements in the autumn wage round broadly protect real wage gains against the impact of rising
inflation and households may be ready to reduce their saving in view of the still encouraging prospects for income and employment.
With output close to capacity limits and profits at record levels there are strong incentives for firms to step up capital
spending. Yet, the danger of a recession abroad, the Gulf crisis and spreading fragility in financial markets have recently
deteriorated the investment climate. WIFO survey results show clearly that entrepreneurs are turning more cautious in judging
the business outlook. On the other hand, activity in the construction industry is gaining new momentum. In all, the forecast
for 1991 GDP growth is slightly revised downwards to 3¼ percent.