Prognose für 1990. Anhaltend gutes Wirtschaftsklima und hohe Investitionspläne (Outlook for 1989 and 1990: Good Prospects for Business Climate and Investment)
Die heimische Konjunktur bleibt auch 1990 lebhaft. Das Wachstum wird aber langsamer, weil der "Konjunkturmotor Export" an
Zugkraft verliert. Hohe Zinssätze bremsen die internationale Konjunktur. Die positiven Einflüsse von der Öffnung Osteuropas
gleichen diese retardierenden Effekte wahrscheinlich nicht ganz aus. Die österreichische Wirtschaft wird 1990, wie schon im
September 1989 angenommen, um 3% wachsen. Trotz starker Inlandsnachfrage ist das Defizit der Leistungsbilanz 1990 mäßig, die
Inflationsrate dürfte allerdings auf 3½% steigen.
Keywords:Prognose für 1990. Anhaltend gutes Wirtschaftsklima und hohe Investitionspläne; Outlook for 1989 and 1990: Good Prospects
for Business Climate and Investment
Forschungsbereich:Makroökonomie und öffentliche Finanzen
Sprache:Deutsch
Outlook for 1989 and 1990: Good Prospects for Business Climate and Investment
After a temporary halt the business cycle will resume its upward trend. Firms in manufacturing industry still have a comfortable
stock of outstanding orders with little spare production capacity left. However, the effect of higher interest rates is likely
to slow the expansion of activity abroad and of international trade. Price competitiveness of Austrian exports is unlikely
to increase much further and the stimulus to consumption from the tax reform is going to wear off. Therefore, as in the earlier
forecast, GDP growth is seen to come down gradually from an average 4 percent in 1989 to 3 percent in 1990. Because of higher
stockbuilding total domestic demand will rise unabated. At current import propensities the foreign sector real balance will
be marginally negative. Assuming broadly unchanged terms of trade the current account forecast yields a small deficit of AS
7 billion. The greater part of the deterioration in the trade balance will again be compensated by higher net revenues from
tourism. While in 1989 consumer prices were boosted by higher import prices of raw materials, wages and salaries will add
to inflation in 1990. The number of employees is expected to increase by 30,000 (+1 percent). As the supply of labour, particularly
of foreigners, is very elastic registered unemployment is expected to fall insignificantly to a rate of 4.9 percent of the
dependent labour force.