Budgetkonsolidierung im Vorfeld der Verwirklichung der Währungsunion. Mittelfristige Prognose der österreichischen Wirtschaft
bis 2000 (Fiscal Consolidation in View of the Completion of EMU. Medium-Term Projections for the Austrian Economy)
Nach zwei Jahren Wachstumsflaute wird sich die österreichische Wirtschaft ab 1998 wieder dynamischer entwickeln. Mit einer
durchschnittlichen Zunahme des realen Brutto-Inlandsproduktes um 1,8% pro Jahr wächst die Produktion in Österreich jedoch
langsamer als in der EU (+2,1%). Das Budgetkriterium für die Teilnahme an der Währungsunion, nämlich die Neuverschuldung des
Staates bis 1997 auf 3% des BIP zu drücken, ist der Prognose zufolge erfüllbar. Die erwartete Belebung des Wirtschaftswachstums
könnte – bei gleichzeitig diszipliniertem Ausgabenverhalten des Staates – die Neuverschuldungsquote bis zum Jahr 2000 auf
etwa 2% sinken lassen.
Forschungsbereich:Industrie-, Innovations- und internationale Ökonomie – Makroökonomie und öffentliche Finanzen
Sprache:Deutsch
Fiscal Consolidation in View of the Completion of EMU. Medium-Term Projections for the Austrian Economy
The Austrian economy has been struck by the most recent business cycle downturn in Europe. At the same time, a two-year program
of fiscal consolidation has been launched comprising all levels of government, with the aim of bringing down public sector
borrowing to 3 percent of GDP by 1997. In the short run, lackluster demand from abroad and real income losses of private households
will considerably dampen the pace of activity. As from 1998, demand and output should rebound strongly and advance by nearly
3 percent p.a. until the year 2000. On average for the period 1995-2000, real GDP may rise by only 1.8 percent p.a., thereby
falling somewhat behind the pace in the EU (projected at 2.1 percent). A more competitive environment adds to the pressure
for rationalization and efforts to save labor as input for production. The public sector is unlikely to expand its personnel
capacities in the foreseeable future. Therefore, the number of jobs may not increase over the projection period, leading to
a marked increase in unemployment. In 1998, the jobless rate may attain 8 percent (of the dependent labor force, as conventionally
measured), before abating to 7½ percent by 2000. Labor market and wage developments are closely interrelated. Real wages are
expected to increase at a markedly slower pace than labor productivity. Inflation should remain firmly under control, as neither
import prices nor wage costs are likely to exert significant upward pressure. The new setting of fiscal policy and the projected
international scenario will allow government borrowing to decline to a ratio of 3 percent of GDP by 1997, thereby meeting
the relevant convergence criterion for participation in the European Monetary Union. Thereafter, with economic growth accelerating
and public authorities maintaining tight control over expenditure, the deficit/GDP ratio may continue falling to 2 percent
by the year 2000.