Wirtschaftswachstum mittelfristig mehr als 2%. Prognose der österreichischen Wirtschaft bis 2010 (Medium-term Economic Growth above 2 percen. Projections for the Austrian Economy until 2010)
Das Wirtschaftswachstum wird in Österreich 2005 bis 2010 durchschnittlich 2,1% pro Jahr betragen. Dabei spielt die erwartete
Erholung der Konjunktur in Europa – insbesondere in Deutschland – eine wesentliche Rolle. Die österreichische Wirtschaft wird
etwas rascher wachsen als der Durchschnitt des Euro-Raums, weil sie preislich wettbewerbsfähig ist und von der EU-Erweiterung
besonders profitiert. Die Dynamik erleichtert die Konsolidierung der öffentlichen Haushalte; sie dürfte jedoch nicht ausreichen,
um die Arbeitslosigkeit mittelfristig zu verringern.
Keywords:Mittelfristprognose Oesterreich
Forschungsbereich:Makroökonomie und öffentliche Finanzen
Sprache:Deutsch
Medium-term Economic Growth above 2 percen. Projections for the Austrian Economy until 2010
The Austrian economy is expected to grow by 2.1 percent per year until 2010, exceeding the average rate for the euro area.
The increase in external demand and the high competitiveness of domestic companies will drive exports in the years to come.
The upgrading of the transportation infrastructure and the expected revival of residential building will boost construction
output. Also, private household consumption should progressively pick up from its extended stagnation of the past years. However,
the overall expansion is unlikely to be strong enough as to make inroads into unemployment. Against this background, price
and wage increases will remain moderate. With the impact of the 2005 tax reform waning, the general government deficit should
steadily decline, provided the authorities maintain a stance of sustained restraint on expenditure.
Economic growth in Austria is projected at an average 2.1 percent p.a. over the period from 2005 to 2010. The expected cyclical
recovery in Europe and notably in Germany plays a major role in this context. Austrian economy will grow somewhat faster than
the euro area, strongly benefiting from the last EU enlargement and the high price competitiveness of its exports. This forward
momentum, while facilitating the consolidation of public finances, will not be strong enough as to reduce unemployment in
the medium term.
