Prognose für 1992 und 1993: Konjunkturschwäche noch nicht überwunden (Economic Outlook for 1992 and 1993: Cyclical Slow-down and Sluggish Recovery)
WIFO-Monatsberichte, 1992, 65(1), S.3-16
 
Rege Nachfrage in Handel, Fremdenverkehr und Bauwirtschaft schirmte die Wirtschaft bisher vom Einfluß der internationalen Rezession ab. Je länger sich die Erholung der Konjunktur im Ausland verzögert, umso eher wird Österreich seinen Wachstumsvorsprung einbüßen. Ein neuer Aufschwung muß vor allem vom Export getragen werden.
Keywords:Prognose für 1992 und 1993: Konjunkturschwäche noch nicht überwunden; Economic Outlook for 1992 and 1993: Cyclical Slow-down and Sluggish Recovery
Forschungsbereich:Makroökonomie und europäische Wirtschaftspolitik
Sprache:Deutsch

Economic Outlook for 1992 and 1993: Cyclical Slow-down and Sluggish Recovery
With the international recovery stalling internal demand forces in Austria will prove too weak as to compensate for persistent export sluggishness. The lagging recovery drags down Austrian export growth and requires an adjustment of the GDP forecast for 1992 to +2½ percent. Parallel to developments in Germany exports will pave the way to a broader pick-up of activity as from mid-1992, but the upswing will be slow in gaining momentum. In 1993, GDP growth may accelerate to an average 3 percent. Domestic demand is set to slow down. Lower wage settlements, a somewhat faster pace of inflation and small employment gains will bear down on private consumption. In many sectors, the hitherto lively investment activity sill slacken with the fall in capacity utilization. While this should help push down the trade deficit, net receipts from foreign tourism are unlikely to rise by the same amount as in 1992. Thus, the balance on current account may stay in small deficit of AS 2 to 3 billion per annum.