Many countries have implemented social programmes providing long-term financial or in-kind entitlements. These programmes
often focus on specific age-groups and consequently their expenditure streams are subject to demographic change. Given the
strains already existing on public budgets, long-term forecasts are an increasingly important instrument to monitor the budgetary
consequences of social programmes. The expected development of the labour force is a key input to these forecasts. We suggest
combining a functional data approach to age-profiles of labour market participation rates with information on education, marital
status and other exogenous variables to improve long-term forecasts of labour supply.
Keywords:TP_Alterung_Makro forecast, labour supply, age-profile, smoothing
Forschungsbereich:Makroökonomie und europäische Wirtschaftspolitik