Trade Synchronisation During Major Economic Crises
WIFO Working Papers, 2013, (449), 56 Seiten
In this paper we present a new long-term database on monthly export and import series for 23 economies during 1921-2010 and its first empirical application. Using these data, we analyse the synchronised decline in foreign trade during the recession 2008-09 in a historical perspective. We investigate the following two research questions: First, we compare the degree of synchronisation of trade flows among the past major economic crises. Second, we investigate the synchronisation of the speed of the recovery after these recessions. In order to answer these questions we use both, descriptive statistics (like rolling correlations) and turning-point oriented measures (Bry-Boschan routine, Markov switching model).
Keywords:Synchronisation, Trade collapse, Turning Points, Economic History KP_Berichte_Analysen
Forschungsbereich:Industrieökonomie, Innovation und internationaler Wettbewerb – Makroökonomie und europäische Wirtschaftspolitik
Sprache:Englisch

Verwandte Einträge

Projektberichte (abgeschlossen), Dezember 2012
Report to the Jubiläumsfonds of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Project-No 14164
Mit finanzieller Unterstützung von: Jubiläumsfonds der Oesterreichischen Nationalbank
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
In this study we put the synchronised decline in foreign trade during the Great Recession 2008-09 in a historical perspective. The first part of the project is the construction of a consistent set of monthly time series including nominal values of exports and imports for a set of 23 economies over the period from 1921 up to now. Using this new dataset we investigate the following two research questions: First, we compare the degree of synchronisation of trade flows among the past major economic crises. Second, we investigate the synchronisation of the speed of the recovery after these recessions. In order to answer these questions we use both, descriptive statistics (like rolling correlations) and turning-point oriented measures (Bry and Boschan, Markov-switching model).
Projektberichte (abgeschlossen), Dezember 2011
Interim Report to the Jubiläumsfonds of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Project-No 14164
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
Mit finanzieller Unterstützung von: Jubiläumsfonds der Oesterreichischen Nationalbank