Stephan Schulmeister
Recovery in Industrialised Countries, Strong Acceleration of Growth in the Other Groups of Countries. Medium-term Projection for the World Economy until 2008
Austrian Economic Quarterly, 2004, 9(1), S.34-42
Online seit: 28.04.2004 0:00
The medium-term growth rate of the world economy is set to rise markedly. Between 2003 and 2008 world GDP is expected to expand on average by 4.0 percent per year, and world trade to increase by 6.1 percent per year. The highest growth rate should be achieved by the non-oil developing countries (+5.6 percent), followed by the former planned economies (+4.7 percent) and the oil-exporting developing countries (+3.9 percent). With an output increase of 2.5 percent p.a. the industrialised countries are projected to do only marginally better than during the period between 1997 and 2003. In the USA the economy will continue to grow faster than in the enlarged EU (+2.9 percent as compared to +2.3 percent). Within the EU, the best economic performance is expected by the accession countries (+3.5 percent), while Germany will continue to lag behind (+1.8 percent).
Keywords:medium-term forecast; economic policy in the USA and in the EU; overappreciation of the euro; Austria
Forschungsbereich:Makroökonomie und öffentliche Finanzen