Slight Improvement in Economic Expectations Amid Persistent Risks

The index of current assessments of the overall economy rose by 0.7 points in July to –3.1 points, remaining below the zero line that separates positive from negative assessments. In the manufacturing sector, the index remained unchanged and, as in the previous month, stood at –7.7 points, still in the sceptical range. In the construction sector, the situation index rose more sharply (+4.2 points) and, at 3.1 points, was back above the zero line. In the services sector, the situation index fell slightly (–0.4 points) and, at –2.6 points, remained in the sceptical range. In the retail sector, by contrast, the situation index improved (+5.6 points), returning to above the zero line at 2.9 points.

The index of business expectations for the total economy also rose in July (+1.8 points) but remained below the zero line – which separates negative from positive economic expectations – at –4.4 points. In the retail sector, the expectations index rose again (+5.9 points) following the previous month's declines but remained in the sceptical range at –14.3 points. In the services sector, the expectations index rose (+1.6 points) but remained in the sceptical range at –3.5 points. In the construction sector, the index fell (–4.1 points) to stand at 6.8 points. Here, construction price expectations in particular declined. In the manufacturing sector, the expectations index rose in July (+3.2 points). However, at –5.9 points, it remained in the sceptical range.