Assessments of the Current Situation Improve, Expectations Decline

The index of current assessments of the overall economy rose by 1.7 points to 0.6 points in February, exceeding the zero line that separates positive from negative assessments for the first time since May 2023. In manufacturing, the situation index rose sharply (+4.2 points) but remained at a sceptical level of –5.5 points. In the construction industry, the situation index fell noticeably (–3.3 points), partly due to weather conditions, and stood at –5.2 points, well below the zero line. In the service sectors, the situation index regained some momentum (+1.1 points) and stood at 4.6 points, higher in positive territory. In the retail sector, the situation index moved sideways (–0.1 points), remaining slightly above zero at 1.8 points.

The index of business expectations for the overall economy declined in February (–2.0 points) and fell back below zero to –2.1 points, the line separating negative from positive economic expectations. In the retail sector, the expectations index fell (–3.0 points) and, at –10.2 points, was in the sceptical economic expectations range, but at an average level for the retail sector. The expectations index also fell in the service sectors (–2.0 points) but remained in the confident range at 1.3 points. The construction industry also saw a deterioration (–1.9 points), with the expectations index falling below zero to –2.9 points. In manufacturing, too, the expectations index declined in February (–2.2 points) and, at –4.3 points, was once again slightly lower in the sceptical economic expectations range.