Economic Dynamics Continue to Decline

The index of current business situation assessments for the overall economy declined in June (–5.8 points) and was clearly lower at 3.7 points, but still in positive territory. In manufacturing, which is particularly sensitive to the economic cycle, the situation index lost 5.7 points compared to the previous month and at –8.7 points was noticeably below the zero line that separates positive from negative situation assessments. In the construction industry, the situation index fell by 6.2 points, but remained in positive territory at 9.8 points. In the service sectors the index lost 6.1 points compared to the previous month, but with a value of 11.1 points still signals comparatively positive economic assessments. In the retail trade sector, the situation index fell by 4.1 points and was negative at –2.0 points.

The index of business expectations for the overall economy lost 5.5 points in June and stood at 5.3 points, noticeably below the zero line that separates negative from positive economic expectations. In the retail trade sector, the expectations index rose by 1.1 points, but remained deep in pessimistic territory at –19.6 points. In the service sectors, the expectations index lost 6.1 points and stood at the zero line with 0.1 points. In the construction industry, the expectations index also fell significantly (–7.2 points) and was only just in positive territory at 1.0 points. The expectations for the business situation were deeply in negative territory. In manufacturing, the expectations index also declined significantly in June (–5.9 points). At –11.5 points, the index is now at a noticeably pessimistic level.