Estimation of the Development of Austrian Goods Exports in 2020. WIFO Research Brief: COVID-19 Pandemic and International Trade

Yvonne  Wolfmayr

22.05.2020

Estimation of the Development of Austrian Goods Exports in 2020

WIFO Research Brief: COVID-19 Pandemic and International Trade

The COVID-19 pandemic has left clear traces in the global economy since the beginning of the year and leading indicators from economic surveys in April fell to historic lows. Recent international forecasts predict a decline in global economic output of between 3 percent and 9 percent.

For global trade in goods, comparisons with the financial market crisis in 2008-09 indicate that the slump in global trade is expected to be three to four times greater than that of global GDP. However, the range of international forecasting results for world trade is wide: –9 percent to –15 percent in more optimistic scenarios and –15 percent to –30 percent in pessimistic scenarios.

The magnitude of the potential impact on Austrian export development in 2020 is determined on the basis of three selected international scenarios. The estimates result in possible losses for Austrian goods exports of between 12 percent and 22 percent. However, in case of much more pessimistic variants of the world trade collapse Austrian exports of goods would fall much more sharply, by up to 28 percent.