Counterfactual Impact Evaluation of Cohesion Policy. Inverse Probability Weighting Macroeconomic Effects with New Data

This study presents a counterfactual impact evaluation of EU cohesion policy investments during the 2014-2020 programming period on the NUTS-3 regions in the European Union. Drawing on payment data at the NUTS-3 level, the analysis exploits variation in actual cohesion policy transfers to identify their causal effects on GDP per capita and employment growth using a Generalised Propensity Score approach. By leveraging granular sub-regional variation in funding intensity this study goes beyond prior evaluations and provides novel evidence on the effectiveness of cohesion policy in reducing regional disparities within the EU.