Prognose für 1992 und 1993. Währungsturbulenzen erhöhen die Konjunkturrisiken (The Economic Outlook for 1992 and 1993: Foreign Exchange Turbulences Add to Cyclical Risks)
Die Krise des Europäischen Währungssystems trübt die Konjunkturaussichten. Export und Tourismus werden neben der schwachen
internationalen Konjunktur auch von der kräftigen Abwertung einiger Währungen betroffen. Die Folgen der schwachen Konjunktur:
sinkende Inflation, aber steigende Arbeitslosigkeit und stagnierende Netto-Reallöhne.
Forschungsbereich:Makroökonomie und öffentliche Finanzen
Sprache:Deutsch
The Economic Outlook for 1992 and 1993: Foreign Exchange Turbulences Add to Cyclical Risks
For the next twelve months or so, the Austrian economy is expected to stay on a modest growth track of 2 percent annual rate.
A significant acceleration in 1993 over 1992, as assumed in earlier forecasts, is now considered unlikely. Sluggishness abroad
and currency devaluations of major trading partners weaken the outlook for Austrian exports as well as for tourism demand.
Merchandise exports are unlikely to rise by more than 3 percent p. a. implying slight losses of market shares; expected volume
gains of 1 percent in tourism exports are much smaller than those registered over the last years. Domestic demand will continue
to provide firm support to activity. With an estimated increase of 2½ percent in 1993 consumption may again outpace private
disposable incomes. The effective revaluation of the schilling will keep down import prices and thus facilitate further deceleration
of inflation. In 1993, the effects of the higher mineral oil tax and of other price hikes will have passed through and the
annual rate may subside from 4 percent to 3½ percent or less. With no major shifts in the demand components to be expected
the current account should stay in small surplus.