Die Errichtung der Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion ist eine zentrale Integrationsetappe der EU; sie wird Produktion, Investition,
Handel und Tourismus nachhaltig beeinflussen. Zugleich geht ihre Bedeutung weit über wirtschaftliche Gesichtspunkte hinaus.
Erstmals in der jüngeren Geschichte gehen die beteiligten Länder freiwillig von der nationalen Währung auf eine einheitliche
Währung (den Euro) über. Im vorliegenden Beitrag werden auf der Basis einer umfassenden Studie des WIFO die möglichen Effekte
der EWU auf die Tourismusimporte und -exporte von 20 Industrieländern (einschließlich Österreichs) dargestellt.
Keywords:Europäische Währungsunion und internationaler Tourismus; European Monetary Union and International Tourism
Forschungsbereich:Regionalökonomie und räumliche Analyse
Sprache:Deutsch
The single European currency has direct (elimination of currency-exchange costs, low interest on borrowed capital, stable
nominal exchange rates between EMU participants) and indirect effects (on real income and growth) on European tourism: • Following
the introduction of the single currency, tourists will no longer be burdened with the costs of currency exchange and therefore
feel a positive income effect. Hence, they will have a larger disposable budget, which may result in higher demand for other
goods and services. However, besides these positive effects on income, there will also be a shift in demand, with destinations
within EMU becoming cheaper relative to those outside EMU. Demand for destinations within the euro zone from outside EMU may
tend to increase, although the effects are expected to be fairly insignificant on account of the relative price decline. •
The creation of EMU results in a one-time drop of long-term interest rates. In the field of tourism, a lowering of interest
rates would grant the small and medium-sized businesses of the hotel and catering sector, many of them highly in debt, some
financial breathing space. This might result in more capital spending and an increased competitiveness. • In the field of
tourism, the exchange-rate turbulence of the 1990s have had a noticeable influence on the development of market shares. Owing
to the introduction of the single European currency, shifts of international travel flows under the impact of exchange rate
fluctuations will no longer occur in the euro zone. Hence, price-related influences of travel flows within the euro zone will
only be due to regional price differences, which are, however, limited to a relatively narrow margin on account of the stability
pact. Austrian tourism, in particular, will benefit from the single currency, since soft-currency countries are expected to
experience comparatively stronger price increases. Stable exchange rates also eliminate the need for rate hedging, which in
turn may induce travel operators to offer their products at lower prices. • The establishment of the European Monetary Union
with a single currency and a central monetary policy results in a higher level of efficiency and capital accumulation than
can ever be achieved in a situation with different currencies, which in turn generates higher economic growth and stimulates
activities in tourism. To assess the effects of the establishment of EMU, a forecasting model designed for international tourism
was used; the baseline version of the forecast was compared with the hypothetical case of non-establishment of EMU (simulation
version). An attempt was made to identify the effects of EMU by looking at the development of the balance of tourism for the
period from 1999 to 2003 relative to GDP. Under the impact of EMU, Austria will achieve an increase of its cumulative balance
of tourist travel by 1.5 percent of GDP and, hence, be among the clear winners of EMU in this respect, besides Germany and
France. The biggest hypothetical losses due to the introduction of the single currency will be suffered by Finland and Italy
(–1.3 percent and –1.2 percent of GDP, respectively). In general, an analysis of cumulative balances shows that the hard-currency
countries will benefit from EMU, while the soft-currency countries have to expect some losses.