Zukunftstrends im internationalen Tourismus. Die Freizeit- und Informationsgesellschaft an der Schwelle des 21. Jahrhunderts (Future Trends in International Tourism)
Für den Welttourismus wird bis zum Jahr 2010 eine jährliche Expansion um rund 3% prognostiziert (zu konstanten Preisen und
Wechselkursen). Das Auslandsreisevolumen der Europäer wird pro Jahr etwas stärker wachsen (+3,5%). Dagegen werden die Einnahmen
Europas aus Tourismusexporten bis zum Jahr 2010 mit jährlich +2,8% unterdurchschnittlich zunehmen. Innerhalb Europas weisen
die EWU-Teilnehmerstaaten mit +3,3% eine relativ geringe Steigerung der Tourismusimporte auf, die jährlichen Exportzuwachsraten
übersteigen mit +2,9% aber den europäischen Durchschnitt. Trotz der erwarteten Abschwächung gegenüber der langfristigen Entwicklung
liegen die Wachstumsraten des internationalen Reiseverkehrs im Durchschnitt weiterhin deutlich über dem gesamtwirtschaftlichen
Wachstum.
Keywords:Zukunftstrends im internationalen Tourismus. Die Freizeit- und Informationsgesellschaft an der Schwelle des 21. Jahrhunderts;
Future Trends in International Tourism
Forschungsbereich:Regionalökonomie und räumliche Analyse
Sprache:Deutsch
Future Trends in International Tourism
Projections for the global tourism industry up to 2010 envisage annual growth rates of about 3 percent (at constant prices
and exchange rates) both for expenditures made in the course of foreign travel ("tourism imports") and for revenues from international
tourist travel ("tourism exports"). International tourist travel by Europeans will grow at a slightly higher rate (+3.5 percent
p.a.) than global tourism. European export revenues, on the other hand, will rise at a slower pace than the average of 20
countries (+2.8 percent p.a.). Within Europe, EMU members will have relatively lower import growth rates (+3.3 percent) while,
at +2.9 percent, their annual export growth rate is higher than the European average. The forecasts point to some flattening
of the long-term growth curve even though international tourism, in spite of some weakening, can still expect to achieve a
long-term growth rate that is markedly higher on average than the overall economic growth rate. The trend is based on the
assumption that tourist travel will gradually lose its status as a luxury commodity and that some degree of saturation will
set in, which will dampen long-term growth of tourism expenditures. In addition, the growing pressure felt by people to provide
for private health and pension insurance coverage, together with purchasing power problems resulting from insecurities in
terms of jobs and financing will boost demand for cheaper or more cost-effective offers, which in turn will reduce average
expenditure per overnight stay. The long-term export forecast for Austria is +2.8 percent p.a. in real terms. Compared to
the European trend, this will enable Austria to maintain its market share. The benefits to be reaped from economic and monetary
union and the initiatives taken towards structural improvements are the main factors driving the development. With regard
to foreign travel by Austrians, the growth rate will settle at about 2.5 percent p.a. in real terms.