Roland Kaitna (BOKU), Andreas Gobiet (Wegener Center), Franz Sinabell (WIFO), Markus Stoffel (Dendrolab)
DEUCALION – Determining and Visualising Impacts of Greenhouse Climate Rainfall in Alpine Watersheds on Torrential Disasters
Studien, Juli 2014, 28 Seiten
Auftraggeber: Klima- und Energiefonds
Studie von: Universität für Bodenkultur Wien – Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz, Wegener Zentrum für Klima und Globalen Wandel – Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Universität Bern, Labor für Dendrogeomorphologie
Torrential processes like flash floods, debris flows, and debris floods represent a serious hazard in Alpine environments.
Apart from the basic disposition of a watershed (e.g., relief energy, sediment availability) and variable disposition (e.g.,
seasonal changes), the triggers of these events are mostly intense convective storms or advective rainfalls. Therefore changes
of climatic conditions are likely to have direct and potentially drastic impacts on the frequency and ensuing magnitude of
torrential disasters. The aim of the DEUCALION project was to assess changes of potential future disasters for different alpine
watersheds based on retrospective analyses and predictions of changes of triggering conditions. The main contribution of the
project is a better assessment of past, contemporary and potential future torrential hazards and subsequent assessment of
associated risks for human assets on vulnerable fans and cones. Within the DEUCALION project we analysed three characteristic
study regions, representing different geomorphic settings and characteristic climatic influences (north-west, south-west,
and north-east). Connecting climate change modelling with the earlier identified thresholds we found that for the "best" climate
change scenario there is almost no change of debris flow probability in all study regions from May to June, and a decrease
in July and August. For the "worst" climate change scenario we found an increased probability for some seasons in all regions,
especially in summer and in the north-east. Scenario-based hazard modelling, based on variation of event volumes, showed only
minor influence on the hazard zones for our three test sites. Scenario-based risk and life cycle modelling reveals the importance
of mitigation measures, which have a strong effect on the predicted costs.
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Universität für Bodenkultur Wien
Abgeschlossen: 2014
The study deals with climate change and its consequences for the economy of regions which are exposed to natural hazards.
The starting point of the analysis will be a detailed description of the situation of the study region. Based on information
on the number of objects like houses in zones of different risk and on attributes of the objects their current value will
be estimated. Based on maps for settlement development an evaluation will be made whether there is room for further development
in the study region or not.