Im 2. Halbjahr 2012 stagnierte die österreichische Volkswirtschaft nahezu, vieles spricht aber für eine Rückkehr auf einen
Wachstumspfad im I. Quartal 2013. So wies ein Großteil der Vorlaufindikatoren bereits im November auf ein Ende der Abwärtsbewegung
hin. Die Wirtschaftsentwicklung hat demnach wahrscheinlich zu Jahresbeginn die Talsohle durchschritten. Die binnenwirtschaftlichen
Voraussetzungen für einen langen und breit angelegten Aufschwung sind weiterhin intakt. Erhebliche Risiken liegen allerdings
nach wie vor im außenwirtschaftlichen Umfeld. Nach einem Wachstum von 0,8% im gesamten Jahr 2012 wird das BIP in Österreich
2013 um 1,0% und 2014 um 1,8% expandieren.
Keywords:Konjunkturprognose Österreich
Forschungsbereich:Makroökonomie und öffentliche Finanzen
Sprache:Deutsch
Recovery Subject to Lasting Uncertainty. Economic Outlook for 2013 and 2014
Short-term prospects for the Austrian economy have hardly changed since the revision of the WIFO forecast of last December.
As expected, demand and output edged down slightly in the fourth quarter 2012, but leading indicators kept heading up during
the first three months of 2013. Having moderated to an average 0.8 percent in 2012, GDP growth is projected to pick up to
1.0 percent in 2013 and 1.8 percent in 2014.
Although demand and output in Austria virtually stagnated in the second half of 2012, the odds are for growth to resume in
the first quarter of 2013. The majority of leading indicators suggested an end to the downward trend already as of last November.
The economy has thus probably passed the cyclical trough early this year. From the domestic perspective, the conditions for
a lasting and broad-based upswing remain in place. Yet, the external environment continues to hold important risks. After
an increase by 0.8 percent in 2012, Austria's GDP is projected to grow by 1.0 percent in 2013 and 1.8 percent in 2014.
Short-term prospects for the Austrian economy have hardly changed since the revision of the WIFO forecast of last December.
As expected, demand and output edged down slightly in the fourth quarter 2012, but leading indicators kept heading up during
the first three months of 2013. Having moderated to an average 0.8 percent in 2012, GDP growth is projected to pick up to
1.0 percent in 2013 and 1.8 percent in 2014.
