Die Studie stellt die erzielten Integrationseffekte der immer tieferen EU-Integration Österreichs anhand von Modellergebnissen
vor. Aufgrund eines internationalen Vergleiches (z. B. mit der Schweiz) wird diskutiert, ob die EU-Mitgliedschaft in Zeiten
der Krise Vor- oder Nachteile hatte und was ein Abseitsstehen von der EU-Integration bedeutet hätte. Abschließend folgt eine
Diskussion über die Euro-Krise und über die Zukunft der WWU. Ein Zerfall der Währungsunion wäre demnach um vieles teurer als
die anhaltenden Rettungsmaßnahmen und der Einsatz zum Erhalt der Währungsunion. Österreich profitierte, wie die Untersuchung
zeigt, ökonomisch auf allen Stufen der Integration (Ostöffnung BIP-Wachstum +0,2 Prozentpunkte pro Jahr, EU-Mitgliedschaft
+0,6 Prozentpunkte, WWU-Teilnahme +0,4 Prozentpunkte, EU-Erweiterung +0,4 Prozentpunkte). Die aus Modellsimulationen abgeleiteten
Integrationseffekte durch die Teilnahme an allen EU-Projekten verstärkten das Wachstum des österreichischen BIP insgesamt
um ½ bis 1 Prozentpunkt pro Jahr. Die Plausibilität dieser Modellergebnisse wird durch den Vergleich der Wirtschaftsentwicklung
Österreichs mit anderen EU-Ländern und mit Drittländern unterstrichen. So entsprach der Wachstumsvorsprung Österreichs vor
Deutschland und der Schweiz den genannten Integrationseffekten. Dieser "Wachstumsbonus" ist ohne die Integrationswirkungen
der Teilnahme Österreichs an allen EU-Projekten schwer bis gar nicht erklärbar.
Forschungsbereich:Makroökonomie und öffentliche Finanzen
Sprache:Deutsch
Austria's Membership in the European Union. An Evaluation in Times of Crisis
The study presents the effects produced by Austria's ever deeper integration in the EU, based on model results. Using international
comparisons (e.g., with Switzerland), it discusses whether EU membership had advantages or disadvantages in times of crisis
and what non-membership would have meant. It is followed by a debate on the euro crisis and the future of economic and monetary
union. A collapse of the monetary union would have been much more expensive than the ongoing rescue measures and the commitment
to saving it. The study showed that Austria profited economically at all levels of integration (eastern opening accelerated
GDP growth by 0.2 percentage point per year, EU membership yielded 0.6 percentage point, EMU membership added 0.4 percentage
point, and the EU enlargement made for 0.4 percentage point. The integration effects, deduced from model simulations, of Austria's
participation in all EU projects enhanced GDP growth in Austria by altogether 0.5 to 1 percentage point per year. The plausibility
of these model results is underlined by comparing Austria's economic development to that of other EU members and third countries.
Thus, Austria had a growth advantage over Germany and Switzerland that corresponded to these integration effects. This "growth
bonus" would be difficult to impossible to explain without the integration effects generated by Austria's participation in
all EU projects.
The "Single Market", the core element of European integration, commemorates its 20th anniversary this year. Since its accession
to the EU in 1995, Austria has taken part in all steps of deeper integration. Not only from a political perspective has Austria
become more modern and European through EU membership, it has also benefited economically at each stage of integration: opening-up
of Eastern Europe (additional GDP growth of 0.2 percentage point per year), EU membership (participation in the EU Single
Market +0.6 percentage point), participation in EMU (+0.4 percentage point) and EU enlargement (+0.4 percentage point). Overall,
the integration effects from participation in all stages have boosted Austria's GDP growth by between ½ and 1 percentage point
per year, as derived from model simulations. The plausibility of these results is confirmed by a comparison of Austria's economic
performance with that of other EU or third countries. Thus Austria's growth advantage vis-à-vis Germany and Switzerland corresponds
to the calculated integration effects. This "growth dividend" is difficult to explain, if at all, when abstracting from the
integration effects of Austria's participation in all EU policy moves.
