Nach Vorliegen des Bundesvoranschlags 1995 und der sich abzeichnenden weiteren Budgetsparmaßnahmen bis 1998 hat das WIFO die
Auswirkungen der Budgetkonsolidierung für die Gesamtwirtschaft neu bewertet. Gegenüber dem "Sparpaket" (Stand vom Jänner 1995),
in dem ausgabenseitige Einsparungen dominierten, verteilt sich das nunmehr für die Periode 1995/1998 geschätzte Konsolidierungsvolumen
von 127,5 Mrd. S etwa zur Hälfte auf Ausgabenkürzungen und Einnahmenerhöhungen. Dadurch wird mittelfristig (bis 1998) das
reale BIP um 0,4% gedämpft, das Preisniveau des privaten Konsums um ¼% erhöht und die Leistungsbilanz um 0,5% des BIP entlastet.
Die Neuverschuldungsquote des Gesamtstaates unterschreitet mit 2,6% des BIP das Maastricht-Konvergenzziel. Auch die Staatsschuldenquote
sinkt kontinuierlich auf 64% des BIP.
Keywords:Budgetkonsolidierung in kurz- und mittelfristiger Sicht; The Fiscal Consolidation Program from a Short-term and Medium-term
Perspective
Forschungsbereich:Makroökonomie und öffentliche Finanzen
Sprache:Deutsch
The Fiscal Consolidation Program from a Short-term and Medium-term Perspective
In January 1995 the Austrian Institute of Economic Research carried out a preliminary assessment of the consolidation measures
as provided in the Working Agreement between the two coalition parties ("austerity package"). In the meantime, several items
contained in this package have been changed, and the Parliament has passed the federal budget for 1995. The new evaluation
is based on the federal budget 1995 as well as on the likely development of expenditure cuts up to 1998 according to the intentions
of the government expressed so far. According to the present program, expenditure cuts are only half as large as envisaged
in the austerity package; furthermore an increase in revenues is proposed in the budget. These changes move the budget further
away from the consolidation target, but at the same time ameliorate possible negative distributive effects. The consolidation
measures are estimated to relieve the federal budget by a cumulated Sch 127.5 billion over the period 1995-1998, with half
of the savings coming from expenditure cuts, the other half from an increase in revenues. Compared to a scenario without fiscal
restraint, new indebtedness of the central government will be reduced by Sch 29 billion in 1995. These savings more than offset
the direct and indirect cost of accession to the EU (contribution to the EU and compensation for farmers). According to the
simulations of the macroeconomic model, the consolidation measures lower the level of real GDP by 0.4 percentage points and
reduce the number of jobs by 13,000 in the year 1998. The increase in the mineral oil tax will raise consumer prices by ¼
percent. The balance in the current account will be relieved by Sch 17 billion (0.5 percent of GDP) in 1998. Net lending of
general government will improve by 1 percent of GDP, and in 1998 will total 2.6 percent of GDP, dropping below the Maastricht
convergence goal of 3 percent. The public debt ratio is expected to steadily decline to 64 percent. The austerity program
pursues two goals: to strengthen the hard-currency policy by fiscal restraint and to meet the convergence criteria for participation
in a future European Monetary Union. The budget proposal for 1995 is a first step in the direction of a medium-term consolidation
of the budget. Over the following years there will be some maneuvering room left in the choice of specific instruments for
attaining this goal.
