Josef Baumgartner, Serguei Kaniovski, Hans Pitlik, Margit Schratzenstaller, Thomas Url, Wachstum gewinnt durch Exportdynamik an Schwung – Binnenkonjunktur bleibt verhalten. Mittelfristige Prognose der österreichischen Wirtschaft bis 2015

WIFO-Monatsberichte, 2011, 84(1), S.49-62
   
Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt wird von 2011 bis 2015 real um durchschnittlich 2,2% pro Jahr expandieren. Die Arbeitslosenquote (laut AMS-Definition) wird im Durchschnitt der Jahre 2011 bis 2015 6,8% betragen. Aufgrund des Anstiegs des in- und ausländischen Arbeitskräfteangebotes wird sich die Lage auf dem Arbeitsmarkt nicht weiter entspannen. Im Gefolge der Maßnahmen zur Konsolidierung der öffentlichen Haushalte und der Konjunkturbelebung dürfte das Budgetdefizit bis 2015 unter 2% des BIP sinken. Die Inflationsrate wird durch die Steuererhöhungen und den anhaltenden Rohstoffpreisauftrieb 2011 auf 2,1% steigen und über den gesamten Prognosezeitraum bei 1,9% liegen.
 
Forschungsbereich:Makroökonomie und europäische Wirtschaftspolitik
Sprache:Deutsch

Growth is Gaining Momentum Owing to Exports, Domestic Demand Remains Sluggish. Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy until 2015

Led by a dynamic export growth real GDP in Austria grew by 2 percent in 2010. Between 2011 until 2015 the Austrian economy is expected to grow by 2.2 percent. The annual growth rate of trend output will average at 1.7 percent in the forecast period, ¼ percentage point below the average of the 10 years before the crisis. The world economy has overcome the cyclical trough sooner than anticipated and expanded by 4.5 percent in 2010. This growth rate is expected to persist during the period from 2011 to 2015. The revival of world trade will cause an increase of Austrian exports by an average of 6.2 percent per year. As import growth is slightly lower at 5.8 percent, net exports will contribute to GDP growth. The pick-up in export activity in 2010 failed to spur investment (–3.1 percent) sufficiently as capacity utilisation remained low at the beginning of the year. Owing to the sustained and dynamic export growth, investment activity is expected to pick up in the forecast period and gross fixed capital formation will expand by an average of 2.9 percent per year.

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Josef Baumgartner, Serguei Kaniovski, Hans Pitlik, Margit Schratzenstaller, Thomas Url, Exports Drive Growth – Domestic Demand Remains Subdued. Medium-term Projections for the Austrian Economy until 2015

Austrian Economic Quarterly, 2011(1), S.21-34
Real gross domestic product will expand by 2.2 percent per year during 2011-2015. The unemployment rate (according to the Public Employment Service Austria, AMS) will amount to 6.8 percent on average during 2011-2015. Due to increasing foreign and domestic labour supply labour market conditions will not ease further. Owing to measures to consolidate public finances and improveing economic activity the budget deficit is expected to fall below 2 percent of GDP by 2015. The inflation rate will rise to 2.1 percent in 2011 driven by tax increases and rising commodity prices. Over the forecast period consumer price will increase on average by 1.9 percent per year.
 
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