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Stefan Ederer, Serguei Kaniovski, Hans Pitlik, Thomas Url, Slow Upturn Following Soft Patch in 2012. Medium-term Forecast of the Austrian Economy until 2016

Austrian Economic Quarterly, 2012, 17(1), S.12-23
The Austrian economy will not regain significant momentum before 2014. During the forecast period from 2012 until 2016 real GDP will grow by 1.6 percent per year on average. Exports will expand by 5.5 percent per year. Imports, by contrast, will increase by only 5.1 percent. The average inflation rate during 2012-2016 will be 2.1 percent. Despite the increase of employment tensions in the labour market will remain, as the labour supply will grow, too. At 7.3 percent the unemployment rate will be considerably higher in the forecast period than before. Moderate and sustainable consolidation and reform measures in the public sector will not dampen economic activity excessively in the medium term.
Forschungsbereich:Makroökonomie und europäische Wirtschaftspolitik