Weekly WIFO Economic Index

WWWI for GDP and its subcomponents

Based on the weekly GDP indicator (WWWI), domestic economic output in October (calendar weeks 40 to 44) was ¾ percent above the previous year's level. The estimates based on unadjusted data (similar to July 2024 +1 percent) are influenced by two additional working days or trading days in October 2024 compared to the same month of the previous year. In the first half of November (calendar weeks 45 to 46), economic activity is likely to be ¼ percent higher than a year ago¹.

According to Statistics Austria, real retail sales increased by +1 percent in July and +1¾ percent in August compared to the same period of the previous year following a surprisingly sharp slump in June (–4.6 percent compared to the previous year). The preliminary estimate for September shows a decline of ¼ percent. The inflation-adjusted volume of non-cash transactions as an indicator of household consumption expenditure shows a year-on-year increase in demand for goods (retail sales) and services from October to mid-November. Private consumption is likely to have increased by 3 percent in October and by 2 percent in the first half of November compared to the previous year (September +1½ percent).

The development of gross fixed capital formation is determined by economic output (industrial production) and sentiment in the manufacturing sector (according to the WIFO-Konjunkturtest). In October, the year-on-year decline is estimated at ½ percent (September –1½ percent).

The development of industrial production and tourism as well as the major demand components and the resulting effects on foreign trade resulted in a negative contribution to GDP growth of 3½ percentage points for net exports in October (September –3¾ percentage points).

The number of trucks on Austria's motorways and rail freight traffic stagnated or fell slightly year-on-year in the period from October to mid-November. The number of passenger flights handled at Vienna Airport increased between October and mid-November, while cargo flights have risen sharply since the beginning of the year. The assessment of future business development (expectations for the coming months) by companies in the transport sector remains clearly negative according to the WIFO-Konjunkturtest in October and is likely to have deteriorated again in November. Based on this indicator situation, a year-on-year increase in value added of ¼ percent is estimated for the transport sector (NACE 2008, section H) in October. A decline of ¾ percent is expected for the beginning of November (September –3½ percent). In September, value added was –3½% lower than a year ago due to the flood situation (particularly in the Lower Austrian central region with closures of the A1 motorway and the Westbahnstrecke).

For the WWWI estimates, unadjusted weekly and monthly data are modelled in comparison to the previous year. Two more working days in October than in the previous year therefore influence the calculations, particularly in the goods-producing sector and the closely related market service sectors, and lead to a temporary improvement in the results. Employment in the goods-producing sector (NACE 2008, sections A to E) continued to fall due to the recession and the number of persons looking for work has been rising at double-digit rates since November 2023 compared to the previous year. The WIFO-Konjunkturtest shows no improvement in sentiment, neither in the current situation assessments nor in the expectations for the coming months. WIFO expects economic output in the goods-producing sector to be 2 percent lower in October and 2½ percent lower in the first half of November than in the previous year (September –3¼ percent).

Sentiment indicators for the construction industry remained in negative territory. The two-year increase in the number of persons registered as unemployed in construction, which had even been in double digits since March, fell to a single-digit growth rate in October and employment has been falling for over a year. Value added in construction (NACE 2008, section F) is likely to have stagnated in October compared to the previous year and was probably 1¾ percent lower at the beginning of November than in the same period of the previous year (September –2¼ percent).

Based on cashless transactions in the restaurant and hotel sector, sentiment indicators from the WIFO-Konjunkturtest and online search queries from guests from abroad, value added in tourism (accommodation and food services, NACE 2008, section I) is estimated to be ½ percent lower in October than in the same period last year. A slight increase of +¼ percent is expected for the first half of November (September –4¼ percent). After very weak retail sales in June, sales recovered again in the second quarter (see above). Value added in trade (NACE 2008, section G) is expected to fall by ¾ percent year-on-year in October. At the beginning of November, value added is likely to have fallen by 1½ percent.

As the current employment situation and the sentiment indicators from the WIFO-Konjunkturtest show, the unfavourable development in manufacturing is dampening momentum in remaining market services (NACE 2008, sections J to N). In a year-on-year comparison, value added stagnated in October and the first half of November (September –½ percent), while value added in other personal services (NACE 2008, sections R to T) is expected to increase by 1 percent year-on-year in October and early November (September +1½ percent) on the basis of price-adjusted non-cash payments in the events sector.

¹ The inclusion of newly published monthly data, which must be taken into account when estimating the WWWI, led to a revision of the WWWI for GDP by –½ percentage point in the first half of October, by –¼ percentage point in September and by –½ percentage point in August. There were notable upward revisions on the production side, particularly in the goods producing sector (NACE 2008, sections A to E), construction (NACE 2008, section F) and remaining market services (NACE 2008, sections J to N), while there were major downward revisions in trade (NACE 2008, section G) and transport (NACE 2008, section H).

The WIFO Weekly Economic Index (WWWI) is a measure of the real economic activity of the Austrian economy on a weekly and monthly frequency. It is based on weekly, monthly and quarterly time series to estimate weekly and monthly indicators for real GDP and 18 GDP sub-aggregates (use side 8, production side 10) of the Quarterly National Accounts.

With the release for June 2022, the econometric models for the historical decompositions and for nowcasting have been converted to seasonally unadjusted time series. In addition, year-on-year growth rates are now used to estimate the models.

The WWWI estimates are (currently) updated monthly and published on the WIFO website.