Weekly WIFO Economic Index

WWWI for GDP and its subcomponents

Based on the weekly GDP indicator (WWWI), domestic economic output was ½ percent lower in January 2025 (calendar weeks 1 to 5) and ¼ percent higher in the first half of February (calendar weeks 6 and 7) than in the previous year (December –½ percent, revised)¹.

The inflation-adjusted volume of non-cash transactions as an indicator of household consumption expenditure shows a marked year-on-year increase in demand for goods (retail sales) in January, while demand for services is estimated to have fallen significantly. Private consumption is estimated to have stagnated in January and to have fallen by 1 percent in the first half of February compared with a year earlier (December –¼ percent).

The development of gross fixed capital formation is determined by economic output (industrial production) and sentiment in the manufacturing sector, as measured by the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (business cycle survey). In January, investments are expected to have been 2¾ percent lower than in the previous year, and in the first two weeks of February, they stagnated at the previous year's level (December –3¼ percent).

Developments in industrial production and tourism, as well as in the main components of demand and the resulting effects on external trade, resulted in a negative contribution of net exports to GDP growth of 3¾ percentage points in January (December –4½ percentage points).

The number of trucks on Austria's motorways and the volume of freight handled at Vienna Airport fell in January compared to the previous year. Rail freight transport and the number of passenger flights at Vienna Airport increased in January. According to the WIFO-Konjunkturtest, the assessment of the current business situation by companies in the transport sector improved slightly in January, although the majority still remains in negative territory. On the basis of these indicators, value added in the transport sector (NACE 2008, section H) is expected to have decreased by 1¼ percent in January compared to the previous year (December +2 percent).

The industrial production index according to Statistics Austria was weaker than expected in December (–8.1 percent year-on-year; November –7.5 percent, revised). Employment in the goods-producing sector (NACE 2008, sections A to E) continued to fall due to the recession, and the number of job seekers has been rising at double-digit rates year-on-year since November 2023. The WIFO-Konjunkturtest continues to show no significant improvement in the clearly negative sentiment, neither in the assessment of the current situation nor in the expectations for the coming months. Due to the lower starting level in December and the dynamics of the indicators, WIFO expects economic output in the goods-producing sector to have been 5 percent lower in January than in the previous year and to have contracted further in the first half of February (–3 percent, December –4¾ percent)².

Statistics Austria's production index for the construction sector was also weaker than expected in December (–7.7 percent year-on-year; November –5.9 percent, revised). Sentiment indicators for the construction sector remain bleak. The two-year rise in the number of persons registered as unemployed in construction, which even reached double digits between March and September, is likely to have been interrupted in December: unemployment fell year-on-year for the first time. This trend continued into February. However, after stagnating in December, employment fell again in January. Due to the weaker starting position in December and the indicator situation, value added in construction (NACE 2008, section F) is estimated to have been 3¼ percent lower in January than in the same month of the previous year (first half of February –1¾ percent, December –7 percent).

Based on cashless transactions in the restaurant and hotel sector, sentiment indicators from the WIFO-Konjunkturtest and online searches by foreign guests, value added in tourism (accommodation and food services, NACE 2008, section I) is estimated to have been 1¾ percent lower in January than in the same period of the previous year. In the first half of February, it is expected to have remained even more clearly below the level of a year before (–3¼ percent, December +1¼ percent). Retail sales continued to recover after a slight increase in the third quarter of 2024 (+¾ percent). In the fourth quarter of 2024 they rose by 2½ percent on average and by 1½ percent in January (first half of February +1½ percent). Value added in the wholesale and retail trade sector (NACE 2008, section G) is estimated to have fallen slightly by ¼ percent and ½ percent respectively in January and in the first half of February (December –1½ percent).

The current employment situation in the remaining market services and sentiment indicators from the WIFO-Konjunkturtest point to a slight improvement in this sector, and the dampening effect from manufacturing is also likely to have eased somewhat. In the remaining market services (NACE 2008, sections J to N), value added is estimated to have increased by 1½ percent in January (as in December) compared with a year earlier (first half of February +2½ percent). In other personal services (NACE 2008, sections R to T), value added based on price-adjusted non-cash payments in the entertainment sector is estimated to have increased by 2 percent in January compared with the previous year (first half of February +1½ percent, December +8¼ percent).

¹ The inclusion of newly published monthly data, which must be taken into account when estimating the WWWI, led to a revision of the WWWI. For December, notable downward revisions on the production side occurred in particular in the goods-producing sector (NACE 2008, sections A to E), construction (section F) and the remaining market services (sections J to N). Larger upward revisions were made for accommodation and food services (section I) and other services (sections R to U).

² For the WWWI estimates, unadjusted weekly and monthly data are modelled on a year-on-year basis. In particular, in the goods-producing sector and closely related market services and construction, one working day less in January than in the previous year affects the calculations and temporarily leads to worse results. In December, there was one working day more than in the previous year.

The WIFO Weekly Economic Index (WWWI) is a measure of the real economic activity of the Austrian economy on a weekly and monthly frequency. It is based on weekly, monthly and quarterly time series to estimate weekly and monthly indicators for real GDP and 18 GDP sub-aggregates (use side 8, production side 10) of the Quarterly National Accounts.

With the release for June 2022, the econometric models for the historical decompositions and for nowcasting have been converted to seasonally unadjusted time series. In addition, year-on-year growth rates are now used to estimate the models.

The WWWI estimates are (currently) updated monthly and published on the WIFO website.