
Weekly WIFO Economic Index
WWWI for GDP and its subcomponents
Based on the weekly GDP indicator (WWWI), domestic output in August (calendar weeks 31 to 35) was ¼ percent lower than a year earlier (unadjusted). In September (weeks 36 to 39) and in the first half of October (weeks 40 and 41, preliminary estimate), economic activity is likely to have been unchanged compared to the previous year1.
According to Statistics Austria, after a surprisingly sharp decline in June (–4.6 percent), real retail sales increased by +1¼ percent year-on-year in July and +1½ percent in August (preliminary estimate). The inflation-adjusted volume of non-cash transactions, as an indicator of household consumption expenditure, shows year-on-year growth in demand for both goods (retail sales) and services from August to mid-October, with the latter likely to have grown somewhat more strongly than goods in September and early October. Private consumption is estimated to have increased by 1 percent in August compared to the previous year, by ¾ percent in September and by 1½ percent in the first half of October (July +¼ percent).
Economic output (industrial production) and sentiment in the manufacturing sector (according to the WIFO-Konjunkturtest, business cycle survey) determine the development of gross fixed capital formation. A decline of 2¾ percent year-on-year is estimated for both August and September (July +1 percent).
The development of industrial production, tourism and the main components of demand and the resulting effects on foreign trade, lead to a positive contribution of net exports in the broad sense to GDP growth in August (+3 percentage points) and to a negative contribution in September (–2 percentage points; July +½ percentage point).
In the period from August to mid-October, the number of trucks on Austria's motorways was below the previous year's level. The number of passenger flights handled at Vienna Airport rose from August to mid-October, while the number of cargo flights has grown strongly since the beginning of the year. According to the WIFO-Konjunkturtest, sentiment among companies in the transport sector remains clearly negative. Based on these mixed indicator developments, we estimate that value added in the transport sector (NACE 2008, section H) grew by 1 percent year-on-year in August and by 2 percent in both September and early October (July +1 percent).
For the WWWI estimates, unadjusted weekly and monthly data are modelled on a year-on-year basis. The calculations are therefore affected by two working days more in July and one working day less in August than in the previous year, particularly in the goods-producing sector and the closely related market services, leading to temporarily better results in July. Employment in the goods-producing sector (NACE 2008, sections A to E) has continued to decline due to the recession, and the number of unemployed persons has been rising at double-digit rates since November 2023. The WIFO-Konjunkturtest does not yet show any improvement in sentiment, neither in the assessment of the current situation nor in the expectations for the coming months. WIFO expects economic output in the goods producing sector to have fallen by 4½ percent year-on-year in August and by 4 percent in September and the first half of October (–1 percent in July).
Sentiment indicators for the construction sector remained in negative territory. The number of persons registered as unemployed in construction, which has been rising for two years, has been in double digits since March, while employment has been falling for more than a year. Value added in construction (NACE 2008, section F) is estimated to have been 4 percent lower in August, 3½ percent lower in September and 2½ percent lower in early October than in the same period a year earlier (July –¾ percent).
Based on cashless transactions in the restaurant and hotel sector, sentiment indicators from the WIFO-Konjunkturtest and online search queries by foreign guests, value added in tourism (accommodation and food services, NACE 2008, section I) is estimated to have fallen by ¼ percent in August, by 2½ percent in September and by 2¼ percent in the first half of October compared with the same period of the previous year (July –1¾ percent). After very weak retail sales in June, sales recovered in July and August (see above). Value added in trade (NACE 2008, section G) is estimated to have increased by ¾ percent year-on-year in August. In September and early October, value added is likely to have stagnated at the same level as a year earlier.
As the current employment situation and the sentiment indicators from the WIFO-Konjunkturtest show, the unfavourable development in manufacturing is dampening the momentum in the remaining market services (NACE 2008, sections J to N). Year-on-year, value added fell by ¼ percent in August and by ½ percent in both September and the first half of October (July +1 percent). For other personal services (NACE 2008, sections R to T), value added is estimated to have increased by 2¼ percent, 2 percent and 2½ percent respectively in August to the beginning of October (July +4 percent), on the basis of price-adjusted non-cash payments in the entertainment sector.
1 In September 2024, a benchmark revision of the National Accounts back to 1995 was carried out as part of the publication of the 2023 annual accounts (https://www.statistik.at/fileadmin/pages/224/Informationen_zur_Benchmarkrevision_der_NVA_2024.pdf). The corresponding revision of the quarterly accounts was published on 18 October. This change in the data base required a recalculation of the WWWI and all sub-aggregates for the whole period (calendar weeks 1 2020 to 33 2024) as well as a review and update of the estimation models used.
In addition to the revision of the Quarterly National Accounts, the current calculation also takes into account newly published monthly data that have to be met for the estimation of the WWWI. Overall, this led to a revision of the WWWI for GDP of +1¼ percentage points in July and –¾ percentage point in June. The most significant revisions on the production side were for construction (NACE 2008, section F), public services (NACE 2008, sections O to Q), other market-related services (NACE 2008, sections J to N), transport (NACE 2008, section H) and accommodation and food service activities (NACE 2008, section I).
Weekly Economic Activity, WWWI – Production, WWWI – Demand The WWWI is under constant development; it is regularly reviewed and will be expanded with new and additional weekly data series as they become available. The WWWI is not an official quarterly esti-mate, forecast or similar of WIFO.
The WIFO Weekly Economic Index (WWWI) is a measure of the real economic activity of the Austrian economy on a weekly and monthly frequency. It is based on weekly, monthly and quarterly time series to estimate weekly and monthly indicators for real GDP and 18 GDP sub-aggregates (use side 8, production side 10) of the Quarterly National Accounts.
With the release for June 2022, the econometric models for the historical decompositions and for nowcasting have been converted to seasonally unadjusted time series. In addition, year-on-year growth rates are now used to estimate the models.
The WWWI estimates are (currently) updated monthly and published on the WIFO website.