Models at WIFO

The macroeconomic agent-based model (ABM) simulates the Austrian economy by modelling the interactions of heterogeneous firms and households at the individual level. Calibrated using microeconomic data, the model relaxes key assumptions of traditional equilibrium frameworks. This includes representative agents and market clearing, as well as capturing endogenous feedback between individual decisions and macroeconomic outcomes. The granularity of the ABM makes it well-suited for analysing monetary, fiscal, and labour market policy with a focus on distributional effects, along with regional and sectoral structural change.

ADAGIO (A DynAmic Global Input-Output Model) is an econometric input-output model including the EU 27 and 15 additional economies. At its core are supply and use tables covering 64 sectors linked by international trade matrices. Factor demand and output prices are determined via a translog model, establishing a consistent pricing mechanism. The model features dynamic wealth accumulation across income quintiles, a quadratic AIDS consumer demand system distinguishing durable and non-durable goods, and detailed fiscal linkages between households, businesses, and the public sector.

ALICE (Austrian Laboratory to Investigate Carbon Emissions) is a model developed to forecast greenhouse gas emissions in Austria. It combines economic, energy, and emissions data based on the structure of official energy balances. The model follows a three-step approach starting with the derivation of the sectoral economic development from the WIFO Economic Outlook. Next the final energy demand is calculated using sector-specific activity, energy intensity trends, and assumptions on electrification and renewables. Finally, CO₂ and non-CO₂ emissions are computed using emission factors from greenhouse gas inventory. ALICE focuses on trend extrapolation rather than the analysis of individual measures.

The Austrian Long-run Macroeconomic Model (A-LMM) generates long-term projections of the Austrian economy up to fifty years. Its baseline scenario serves as macroeconomic input for microsimulation models of the Austrian pension insurance system. A-LMM is a neoclassical growth model that uses demographic indicators to determine total factor productivity growth, ICT capital accumulation, savings, and inflation. It captures labour-saving technological progress and replicates stylised facts of growing economies with ageing populations. Cohort-specific labour force participation rates are projected exogenously using a dynamic cohort model.

ASCANIO is an econometric input-output model of the Austrian federal states embedded in a multi-country system covering the EU 27 and 15 additional economies. The model is built on supply and use tables for 74 goods and sectors along with six final demand categories, linked by international and interregional trade matrices. Factor demand and prices are estimated via a translog specification, establishing a consistent pricing mechanism. A distinctive feature is the explicit modelling of commuter linkages between federal states and regional consumption flows from domestic tourism and cross-border shopping. Consumer demand is specified through a quadratic AIDS model.

BERIO is a small-scale district-level input-output model of the Austrian economy. It distinguishes 74 goods and sectors along with six final demand categories within 115 Austrian districts, including 23 districts of Vienna. The model captures detailed regional production technologies based on statistical surveys and the official input-output table. Beyond interregional intermediate consumption linkages, BERIO explicitly models commuter flows and consumption patterns arising from domestic tourism and cross-border shopping. Key outputs include value added and employment by sector and region, decomposed into direct, indirect, and induced effects, as well as taxes and social contributions along with emissions.

BinD (Binary constrained Disaster) is a structural, demand-driven macroeconomic model designed to analyse the impacts of climate change on Small Island Developing States (SIDS) experience and respond to climate change under conditions of financial vulnerability and dependence on capital imports. Extending the classical three-gap framework, it embeds fiscal, savings, and external balance constraints within a dynamic system. The model traces how rising temperatures and extreme weather events accelerate capital depreciation, reduce labour productivity, and widen external financing gaps. A dual-regime mechanism captures transitions between demand-led and capacity-constrained phases, revealing how climate damages can lock vulnerable economies into low-growth, high-debt trajectories.

The Cluster of Dynamic Factor Models (CDFM) bridges large-scale structural macroeconomic models and flexible small-scale factor models. It consists of a series of sector-specific dynamic factor models sequentially linked within a cluster structure. These links are established through Granger-causality tests using classical and neural-network-based techniques. Estimated using a Kalman filter, the CDFM generates disaggregated GDP forecasts across the production, expenditure and income sides of the National Accounts using mixed-frequency monthly and quarterly indicators. The framework accommodates expert judgment and scenario analysis while maintaining interpretability and empirical robustness.

The Dynamic New Keynesian model (DYNK) is a hybrid macroeconomic model combining features of econometric input-output and computable general equilibrium approaches. Covering up to 90 sectors, it is demand-driven, yet incorporates labour supply constraints through a price system consistent with a long-run full employment equilibrium. Consumer demand is modelled across numerous product categories and household types. Sectoral production employs a translog specification with endogenous substitution elasticities. A central feature is the linkage of monetary flows to physical energy and greenhouse gas satellite accounts, enabling integrated assessment of climate and energy policy measures.

KITE (Kiel Institute Trade Policy Evaluation) is a large-scale general equilibrium trade model rooted in the new quantitative trade theory. It simulates the response of more than 150 countries and 65 sectors to trade policy shocks such as tariffs, trade agreements, and sanctions. The model incorporates detailed inter-sectoral linkages through input-output structures, enabling analysis of spillovers along global value chains. Consumers and companies source goods from the cheapest global supplier, accounting for trade barriers and transport costs. KITE is regularly updated and has been applied to EU tariff strategies, carbon border adjustment mechanisms, and trade fragmentation scenarios.

microDEMS (Demographic Change, Employment and Social Security) is a dynamic microsimulation model for analysing the sustainability and adequacy of the Austrian welfare state and the future composition of its population and labour force. Based on detailed administrative employment records, it implements institutional framework conditions including retirement regulations and the education system. The model simulates demographic projections consistent with official forecasts, enriched by educational differentials in fertility and mortality. Core processes include detailed educational careers accounting for parental and migration background, and longitudinal work histories distinguishing seven labour market states. microDEMS is used for labour force projections and studies on the consequences of pension reform and the integration of migrants.

microWELT is a dynamic microsimulation platform for the comparative study of interactions between population ageing, sociodemographic change, and the welfare state. Applications include long-term care projections, labour force forecasting, the impact of education, health, and ethnicity on workforce composition, social security sustainability, and private and public transfers within the National Transfer Accounting framework. Available for numerous EU countries and the USA, microWELT is a portable, continuous time interacting population model based on standardised cross-country data. It is designed as a modular platform, fully documented, and extensible for diverse research applications.

PASMA (Positive Agricultural Sector Model for Austria) is a regional optimisation model of the Austrian agricultural sector. It maximises regional agriculture value added, calibrated to observed production patterns using Positive Mathematical Programming. The model distinguishes arable and livestock farm types under conventional and organic systems across NUTS-3 regions, incorporating agri-environmental programme measures. Key input data include administrative data, farm structure surveys, and economic accounts for agriculture. PASMA integrates economic and environmental indicators within a coherent framework, enabling the assessment of agricultural policy reforms on production, income, land use, and environmental effects.

SHELScape is a spatially explicit, multi-layer agent-based model designed to study the socioeconomic impacts of natural disasters. It integrates supply-side production and trade networks with demand-side household behaviour and migration dynamics within a unified framework. Companies and households make adaptive decisions regarding production, trade, labour supply, and migration relying on evidence-based behavioural rules. The model captures cascading effects through interconnected markets and regions, including non-linear transitions when critical economic thresholds are crossed. SHELScape is particularly suited for analysing indirect and distributed disaster impacts that propagate beyond directly affected areas.

The WIFO-Macromod is used for medium-term macroeconomic forecasting and policy simulation for Austria. It describes the dynamics of key aggregate demand components on an annual basis, while allowing for short- to medium-term labour and goods market disequilibria. Supply-side elements of the model include potential output estimated using the European Commission's production function approach. The model links domestic markets, external trade, the labour market, and the price-wage system to the public sector through taxes and government expenditure. Behavioural equations are estimated via error correction methods, targeting long-run equilibrium relationships while permitting cyclical deviations.

WIFO-Micromod is a microsimulation model used to analyse the distributional, redistributive, and fiscal effects of economic and social policy reforms. Based on EU-SILC data and calibrated with supplementary data sources, it enables ex-ante and ex-post analyses of changes in personal income taxation, social security contributions, and transfer payments at the individual and household levels. It quantifies effects on disposable household incomes, at-risk-of-poverty rates, income inequality, and public budgets, thereby supporting the targeted design of the tax-benefit system. In addition, the model serves for the structural analysis of income distributions and their evolution, as well as for examining the interaction between household structures, labour market constellations, and the tax-benefit system. A detailed tax-transfer module and its compatibility with other models of the Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO) enable consistent micro-macro assessments. In addition, EUROMOD, a harmonised microsimulation model covering European countries, is used for the nowcasting and forecasting of distributional indicators.

The Weekly WIFO Economic Index (WWWI) provides weekly nowcasts of real GDP growth rates and National Accounts components from both production and demand sides. The approach employs informative temporal disaggregation using dynamic factor model versions of Chow-Lin and Litterman methods, estimated using Kalman filtering to handle mixed frequencies and missing observations. Monthly indicators cover production, trade, employment, and sentiment. Weekly indicators include cashless transactions, unemployment, road, rail, and air transport, electricity consumption, and industrial emissions. Developed during the COVID-19 pandemic, the WWWI continues to serve as a high-frequency tool for Austrian business cycle analysis.