ALICE

Forecasting Austria's greenhouse gas emissions

ALICE (Austrian Laboratory to Investigate Carbon Emissions) is a model developed to forecast greenhouse gas emissions in Austria. It combines economic, energy, and emissions data based on the structure of official energy balances. The model follows a three-step approach starting with the derivation of the sectoral economic development from the WIFO Economic Outlook. Next the final energy demand is calculated using sector-specific activity, energy intensity trends, and assumptions on electrification and renewables. Finally, CO₂ and non-CO₂ emissions are computed using emission factors from greenhouse gas inventory. ALICE focuses on trend extrapolation rather than the analysis of individual measures.

The WIFO model "ALICE" (Austrian Laboratory to Investigate Carbon Emissions) is an analytical tool designed to forecast greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Austria. It integrates data from the economy, energy, and emissions sectors and is based on the structure of energy balances provided by Statistics Austria. The model was developed to analyse and simulate the interactions between economic development, energy consumption, and emissions. Limitations are that the model is less granular than other approaches and does not analyse individual measures. Instead, it focuses on extrapolating observed trends and general assumptions. It follows a three-step approach:

Economic development
In the first step, ALICE models economic development based on the WIFO Economic Outlook. The forecast is disaggregated to the sectoral level (NACE 2 classification). Historical trends in value-added and intermediate consumption of individual industries are combined with overarching growth projections. This allows for sector-specific economic developments to be captured. Energy- and emissions-intensive sectors, such as manufacturing, are given particular attention due to their disproportionate contribution to emissions.
Energy consumption and energy carrier use
In the second step, final energy demand is calculated. This is derived from the economic activity of sectors and additional factors such as population growth, heating degree days, and historical trends in energy intensity. Energy demand is modelled in the structure of energy balances, accounting for energy carriers (e.g. fossil fuels, electricity, district heating) and their shares in total consumption. Conversion processes (e.g. electricity and district heating generation) are modelled based on efficiency rates and underlying energy flows. Additional assumptions, such as the electrification of mobility or the expansion of renewable energy, are incorporated.
Emission calculations
In the third step, energy-related CO₂ emissions are derived from energy flows using emission factors from the greenhouse gas inventory, which determine emissions per unit of energy used. Non-CO₂ emissions (e.g. methane and nitrous oxide) are either linked to energy flows or, as in the case of agriculture, estimated using a separate model. Emissions from industrial processes and waste are extrapolated based on historical trends. The model outputs emissions for six aggregated sectors of the UNFCCC inventory (e.g. energy, industry, transport, buildings).