Impact of Demographic Change on Public Care Costs

Using dynamic microsimulation models, this article examines how demographic change, education trends and health developments will shape future care needs and public care costs. For Austria, there is a clear increase in expenditure, driven primarily by rising life expectancy, while the expansion of education has a dampening effect. Comparative analyses for Austria, Spain and Italy illustrate that differences in institutional structures and the potential for informal care lead to widely diverging gaps in care provision. The results underscore the need for preventive health policies, the expansion of formal care capacities, and the development of long-term sustainable financing strategies.