Estimation of Age-related Retirement of Skilled Workers at Regional Level

Statistics Austria's population forecast predicts a decline in the working-age population (15 to 64 years) in Austria from 2025 onwards. This development will also be accompanied by a change in the educational structure of dependent employees. Firstly, cohorts entering the labour market are fewer in number, and secondly, they have higher educational qualifications. Based on the study "Effects of (Non)Action: the Potential Costs of Age-related Retirement of Skilled Workers" commissioned by the Vienna Chamber of Labour, the scenario without compensatory mechanisms on the labour market is supplemented here with regional finding. In this scenario, it is assumed that the older cohorts retiring by 2029 with an apprenticeship qualification will be replaced exclusively by the younger cohorts entering the labour market with an apprenticeship qualification, resulting in a skilled labour shortage.