WIFO Forecasting of Income Distribution. Research Brief on New Beyond GDP Indicators

Stefan Ederer; Marian Fink; Silvia Rocha-Akis

27.03.2024

WIFO Forecasting of Income Distribution

Research Brief on New Beyond GDP Indicators

WIFO is expanding its economic forecast to include two indicators on income development: the S80/S20 income quintile ratio and the at-risk-of-poverty rate. The forecast for the years 2024 and 2025 shows that the indicators are relatively stable and lie within the usual fluctuation ranges.

Both indicators are important indicators in the context of the United Nations 2030 Agenda and the European Commission's Beyond GDP initiative, which represent a broader approach to measuring prosperity and well-being.

The two indicators are calculated on the basis of EU-SILC data with the help of EUROMOD. Important input factors are the population forecast and the household forecast from Statistics Austria as well as the development of employment, unemployment, wage income and inflation based on the respective WIFO economic forecast. As EU-SILC is only available with a delay, the two indicators are also estimated for past years (nowcast).