Slight GDP Increase in the First Quarter of 2025. WIFO Flash Estimate

Sandra Bilek-Steindl; Marcus Scheiblecker

30.04.2025

Slight GDP Increase in the First Quarter of 2025

WIFO Flash Estimate

According to WIFO's latest Flash Estimate, Austria's economic output expanded slightly in the first quarter of 2025: +0.2 percent in volume compared to the previous quarter. In industry, value added rose slightly for the first time in seven quarters. By contrast, momentum in consumer-related services was less favorable. On the demand side, consumer demand supported the business cycle, while investment demand declined slightly.

According to first calculations, GDP rose by 0.2 percent in volume terms in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous period (key figure according to Eurostat). This was the first slight increase after GDP had stagnated or contracted on a quarterly basis for around 2½ years (fourth quarter 2024 –0.4 percent, third quarter 2024 –0.2 percent, second quarter 2024 –0.4 percent). In a year-on-year comparison, this represents a decline of 0.7 percent compared to the first quarter of 2024.

Industrial production provided positive impetus at the start of the year. According to preliminary data from Statistics Austria, the production index for industry (NACE 2008, sections B to E) rose year-on-year in January and February, adjusted for working days. This means that value added in industry in the first quarter of 2025 is also likely to have expanded at a low level for the first time in seven quarters (+0.6 percent compared to the previous quarter). In construction, on the other hand, the sluggish momentum continued (–0.2 percent).

Consumer-related services also performed weakly. In trade, transportation, accommodation and food service activities (NACE 2008, sections G to I), value added fell by 0.4 percent. In contrast, other business activities (NACE 2008, sections M and N) expanded in line with industry (+0.5 percent).

On the demand side, consumer demand supported the business cycle. Consumer demand from private households (including private non-profit organizations) rose marginally (+0.1 percent), while public consumer demand expanded more strongly (+0.4 percent). Gross fixed capital formation fell slightly by –0.1 percent.

Foreign trade provided a slight boost to growth: exports increased by 1.4 percent and imports by 1.1 percent, meaning that this development supported GDP.

Important information

The WIFO Flash Estimate is an initial estimate for the past quarter. It is based on Statistics Austria's quarterly accounts and includes GDP as well as components in the form of seasonally and working day-adjusted rates of change compared to the previous quarter (key figure according to Eurostat specifications).

On 6 June 2025, Statistics Austria will publish the quarterly data for GDP and main aggregates for the first quarter of 2025 based on more complete data.