Preliminary Stabilisation of Economic Assessments

WIFO-Konjunkturtest of November 2019
The results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (business cycle survey) of November 2019 show a cautious stabilisation of the economic assessments of Austrian companies. However, there are still major differences between the sectors: while the economic assessments of companies in the service sectors remain confident despite the decline, companies in the manufacturing sector remain sceptical despite index improvements.

The index of current assessments for the economy as a whole rose by 0.8 points in November (excluding seasonal fluctuations) to a value of 9.5 points, thus remaining at a confident level. In the service industries, the index fell by 1.6 points, but at 12.1 points still signals a dynamic service economy. In the construction sector, the index rose sharply again after the declines in the previous month (+6.3 points) and is very optimistic with a value of 27.5 points. In the economically significant manufacturing sector, the situation index gained some ground (+2.8 points) and is now at –0.1 points on the zero line, which separates positive from negative economic assessments.

In November, the index of business expectations remained almost unchanged from the previous month (+0.2 points) and reached a value of 7.8 points. In the construction industry, the expectation index rose (+3.2 points), and the index value was in optimistic range at 15.5 points. In the service sectors, the expectation index declined compared to the previous month (–1.2 points), but at 12.7 points it is within the range of confident economic expectations. In the manufacturing sector, on the other hand, the expectation index rose (+1.6 points), but remains sceptical at –1.7 points, reflecting global economic risks.

Details on all sectors in the current economic survey can be found here.

Dr. Werner Hölzl
Industrial, Innovation and International Economics