For nowcasting and short-term forecasting of industrial production and GDP, business surveys are a vital source of information.
They cover information of the recent past as well as developments in the near future. Whereas variations in industrial production
indices potentially cover weather conditions as well as variations due to the different number of work days, it is unclear
to which extent business surveys mirror them as well. Ignoring such information can lead to model misspecifications if used
for nowcasting or forecasting. This paper sheds light on the effects of temperature changes as well as the varying number
of work days on business survey results and on the production index of the Austrian construction industry. We find that survey
data do not contain sufficiently the effects of the different number of work days necessary for explaining variations in industrial
production of the construction sector. No statistical evidence was found that changing temperatures beyond their typical seasonal
pattern influence the survey results and production.
Forschungsbereich:Makroökonomie und öffentliche Finanzen