WIFO Working Papers
Diskussionspapiere von Mitarbeiterinnen und Mitarbeitern, Konsulenten und Gästen des WIFO Seit 2006 ausschließlich
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Aktuelle Ausgaben(548 Treffer)
WIFO Working Papers, 2018, (548), 52 Seiten
Homeownership is believed to cause higher unemployment. This is because homeowners face higher mobility costs that limit their
job search to local labour markets. Empirical tests of this prediction have yielded mixed results so far, possibly due to
the endogeneity of homeownership. This paper documents that the privatisation of public housing in Central and Eastern Europe
after the fall of the Iron Curtain resulted in a quasi-experimental assignment of homeownership to individual households.
This facilitates a new test of the effects of homeownership on mobility and unemployment. We find only weak evidence that
homeowners are less willing to move and no evidence of higher unemployment risks relative to renters.
Online seit: 08.01.2018 0:00
WIFO Working Papers, 2017, (547), 32 Seiten
This study examines the lack of convergence among EU countries from a structural perspective. We apply the tradable-non-tradable
framework (T-NT) to evaluate the heterogeneity in labour productivity before and after the great recession. We find that,
across all countries, non-tradables were less relevant for aggregate productivity. The low productivity growth in peripheral
EU countries was accompanied by a specific structural change pattern: there was a sharp production increase of non-tradables
before the crisis relative to other EU countries. For most peripheral countries concerns about unfavourable sector structures
remain, implying a continuation of unsustainable growth patterns. This has implications for the European Commission's macroeconomic
imbalance procedures, since it allows identifying patterns of real divergence on a disaggregated level. Finally, we identify
a link between sectoral growth asymmetries and the quality of domestic governance institutions. Especially differences in
the legal system help to explain the observed productivity growth differentials.
Online seit: 08.01.2018 0:00
WIFO Working Papers, 2017, (546), 35 Seiten
This paper proposes a new panel data structural gravity approach for estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit. The
suggested Constrained Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimator exhibits some useful properties for trade policy analysis
and allows to obtain estimates and confidence intervals which are consistent with structural trade theory. Assuming different
counterfactual post-Brexit scenarios, our main findings suggest that UK's exports of goods to the EU are likely to decline
within a range between 7.2 percent and 45.7 percent (EU's exports to UK by 5.9 percent to 38.2 percent) six years after the
Brexit has taken place. For the UK, the negative trade effects are only partially offset by an increase in domestic goods
trade and trade with third countries, inducing a decline in UK's real income between 1.4 percent and 5.7 percent under the
hard Brexit scenario. The estimated welfare effects for the EU are negligible in magnitude and statistically not different
Online seit: 19.12.2017 0:00
WIFO Working Papers, 2017, (545), 37 Seiten
Since the 1990ies several countries abolished the wealth tax, but surprisingly few scholars investigated the effects empirically.
Motivated by the theoretical literature, this study estimates the effect of the abolition of the net wealth tax in Germany
in 1997 on the household saving rate. The use of the Synthetic Control Method allows using variables on aggregate level instead
of microeconometric panel data, to estimate the effect of abolishing the net wealth tax. As a result, the analysis shows that
the abolition of the net wealth tax had a clear positive effect on the German household saving rate. After three years, the
saving rate was found to be about 3 percentage points higher than it would have been without the measure. Robustness checks
support the results. These findings suggest that empirically the substitution effect dominated.
Online seit: 05.12.2017 0:00
WIFO Working Papers, 2017, (544), 34 Seiten
For a large sample of enterprises in Germany, Austria and Switzerland (the "DACH" region) we study the impact of policy instruments
such as energy-related taxes, subsidies, standards and negotiated agreements, or other regulations on the firm's ecological
and economic performance. To identify the causal linkages, we build a system of twelve equations, first tracking the impacts
of policy on the adoption of green energy technologies for distinct areas. In a second set of equations, we estimate the perceived
impacts of adoption on the firm's energy efficiency, carbon emissions and competitiveness. The results confirm a differentiated
pattern of channels through which policy can affect the firm's energy efficiency and carbon emissions, while having a neutral
impact on its competitiveness.
Online seit: 30.10.2017 0:00
WIFO Working Papers, 2017, (543), 49 Seiten
This paper examines whether PageRank algorithms are a valid instrument for the analysis of technical progress in specific
technological fields by means of patent citation data. It provides evidence for patent data in biotechnology. Recent literature
has been critical with regard to the use of PageRank for the analysis of scientific citation networks. The results reported
in this paper indicate, however, that with some minor adaptations and careful interpretation of the results the algorithm
can be used to capture some important stylised facts of technical progress and the importance of single patents relatively
well especially if compared to indicators based on direct inward citations only.
Online seit: 10.10.2017 0:00
WIFO Working Papers, 2017, (542), 46 Seiten
We develop a small-scale dynamic factor model for the Swiss economy based on an appropriately selected set of indicators.
The resulting business cycle factor is in striking accordance with historical Swiss business cycle fluctuations. Our proposed
model demonstrates a remarkable performance in short-term and medium-term forecasting. Using real-time GDP data since 2004,
the model successfully anticipates the downturn of 2008-09 and responds in a timely manner to the recent sudden drop following
the removal of the Swiss Franc lower bound. In a Markov-switching extension, we propose that our model could be used for Swiss
recession dating. Our model does not indicate a regime-switch following the removal of the Swiss Franc lower bound.
WIFO Working Papers, 2017, (541), 39 Seiten
Ten years ago, the global financial crisis started to unwind in the USA and triggered the greatest recession since World War
II. Although the crisis of 2007-08 was caused in the USA, their economy was not hit so hard in the Great Recession of 2009
as in Europe, and in particular in the Euro area. The USA also recovered more rapidly and sustained from the crisis than the
Euro area. Additionally, the specific Euro (debt) crisis of 2010 led to a double-dip recession in the Euro area, not joined
by the USA. This divergent post-crisis development since then accumulated to a considerable growth gap between the USA and
the Euro area. What are the factors behind this different performance? Would a more aggressive fiscal and/or monetary policy
in the Euro area have closed the growth gap? As our simulation exercises show: the answer is no. However, the unconventional
monetary policy by the ECB since 2014-15 contributed to the most recent recovery in the Euro area. We identify the pivotal
reason of Euro areas growth lagging behind the USA in the different experiences in the crises management. The USA has a long-lasting
experience in handling financial crises. In historical comparison, the Euro area – the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) of
the EU – is still a "teenager". The crises revealed, that the legal basis of the institutional set-up of EMU and hence of
the Euro area was not enough crises-proven. Rescue instruments had newly to be implemented. The global financial crisis was
the first great shock which was badly absorbed by the still quite heterogeneous Euro countries. The Euro area, shattered by
a succession of external (global financial crisis, Great Recession) and internal (Euro crisis) shocks, could therefore not
unfold its growth potential in the last decade. If – hypothetically – the Euro area would have profited from the faster-growing
production inputs (capital and labour) as in the USA, the growth gap could have been closed.
Online seit: 01.09.2017 0:00
WIFO Working Papers, 2017, (540), 52 Seiten
The recent macroeconomic literature dealing with fiscal policy multipliers is dominated by applications of aggregate DSGE
(Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) models, whereas multi-sectoral models (econometric input-output or CGE) are absent.
This paper contributes to the debate from a multi-regional, multi-sectoral perspective. The macroeconomic input-output model
applied covers 67 countries (plus a statistical rest of world) and incorporates model blocks for private consumption, production,
the labour market and the public sector. Household consumption follows the permanent income hypothesis, but with important
liquidity constraints. This study calculates macroeconomic and sectoral impacts of fiscal policy in one peripheral EU economy
(Spain) as well as their inter-regional spillovers to the rest of Europe. Multipliers are about 1.9 for public consumption
and 1.2 for household taxes or transfers in the case of high liquidity constraints (1.6 and 0.9, respectively, for low liquidity
constraints). Partially endogenous public spending produces additional domestic effects as well as relatively large spillovers
for some highly indebted European countries.
Online seit: 22.08.2017 0:00
WIFO Working Papers, 2017, (539), 40 Seiten
Um Schwankungen des Arbeitskräftebedarfs zu begegnen, unterbrechen Betriebe zum Teil in Zeiten geringer Auslastung Dienstverhältnisse,
um anschließend bei verbesserter Auftragslage dieselben Arbeitskräfte wieder einzustellen ("temporärer Layoff"). Der vorliegende
Beitrag untersucht erstmals die kausalen Auswirkungen dieser personalpolitischen Flexibilisierungsstrategie auf die längerfristige
Erwerbskarriere der betroffenen Arbeitskräfte. Der Fokus liegt dabei nicht auf saisonbedingten Beschäftigungsunterbrechungen,
sondern auf temporären Layoffs zur Abfederung konjunkturbedingter Schwankungen des Arbeitskräftebedarfs. Gemäß einem kontrafaktischen
Vergleich mit permanenten Arbeitsplätzen sind Personen infolge der Aufnahme eines Recall-Arbeitsplatzes mit temporärem Layoff
in den folgenden sechs Jahren im Durchschnitt um 80 Tage weniger in Beschäftigung und um 74 Tage mehr in Arbeitslosigkeit.
Dafür sind zum Teil unmittelbar die Beschäftigungsunterbrechungen bestimmend. Temporäre Layoffs wirken sich aber auch über
den betreffenden Arbeitsplatz hinaus negativ auf die Integration in die Beschäftigung aus. Dies betrifft beide Geschlechter
und eine große Zahl von Branchen. Die betroffenen Arbeitskräfte erhalten, wie die Forschungsergebnisse zeigen, keine höheren
Löhne, um den Lohnausfall während des Layoff zu kompensieren und einen finanziellen Anreiz für das Warten auf eine Wiedereinstellung
zu setzen ("kompensierende Lohndifferentiale").
Endbericht zum Jubiläumsfondsprojekt Nr. 15310 (Projektleitung: Helmut Mahringer) • EDV: Georg Böhs
Online seit: 30.06.2017 0:00