Suche nach Publikationen

Aktuelle Suchfilter

WIFO Working Papers

Diskussionspapiere von Mitarbeiterinnen und Mitarbeitern, Konsulenten und Gästen des WIFO – Seit 2006 ausschließlich online verfügbar – Download kostenlos

Die Working Papers geben nicht notwendigerweise die Meinung des WIFO wieder.

Fragen richten Sie bitte an die jeweiligen Autorinnen und Autoren!

Aktuelle Ausgaben(530 Treffer)

Fritz Breuss, Would DSGE Models have predicted the Great Recession in Austria?

WIFO Working Papers, 2016, (530), 24 Seiten
DSGE (Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) models are the common workhorse of modern macroeconomic theory. Whereas story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of DSGE models is only recently topical. In this study, we perform a post-mortem analysis of the predictive power of DSGE models in the case of Austria's recession in 2009. For this purpose, 8 DSGE models with different characteristics (small and large models, closed and open economy models, one and two-country models) were used. The initial hypothesis was that DSGE models are inferior in ex-ante forecasting a crisis. Surprisingly however, it turned out that not all but those models which implemented features of the causes of the global financial crisis (like financial frictions or interbank credit flows) could not only detect the turning point of the Austrian business cycle early in 2008 but they also succeeded in forecasting the following severe recession in 2009. In comparison, non-DSGE methods like the ex-ante forecast with the Global Economic (Macro) Model of Oxford Economics and WIFO's expert forecasts performed not better than DSGE models in the crisis.
 
Online seit: 08.11.2016 0:00

Jürgen Janger, Torben Schubert, Petra Andries, Christian Rammer, Machteld Hoskens, The EU 2020 Innovation Indicator. A Step Forward in Measuring Innovation Outputs and Outcomes?

WIFO Working Papers, 2016, (529), 40 Seiten
In October 2013, the European Commission presented a new indicator intended to capture innovation outputs and outcomes and thereby "support policy-makers in establishing new or reinforced actions to remove bottlenecks that prevent innovators from translating ideas into products and services that can be successful on the market". This paper aims to evaluate the usefulness of the new indicator against the background of the difficulties in measuring innovation outputs and outcomes. We develop a unique conceptual framework for measuring innovation outcomes that distinguishes structural change and structural upgrading as two key dimensions in both manufacturing and services. We conclude that the new indicator is biased towards a somewhat narrowly defined "high-tech" understanding of innovation outcomes. We illustrate our framework proposing a broader set of outcome indicators capturing also structural upgrading. We find that the results for the modified indicator differ substantially for a number of countries, with potentially wide-ranging consequences for innovation and industrial policies.
 
Online seit: 08.11.2016 0:00

Monika Köppl-Turyna, Hans Pitlik, Do Equalisation Payments Affect Subnational Borrowing? Evidence From Regression Discontinuity

WIFO Working Papers, 2016, (528), 36 Seiten
According to the fiscal federalism literature sub-central budget constraints become softer when local governments are more dependent on revenues over which they have no discretion. As a consequence of higher "transfer dependency", sub-central governments can expect to be bailed out by the central government and therefore tend to accumulate higher levels of debt. We test this conjecture with data from Austrian municipalities. Austria is a fiscally highly centralised federation in which tax autonomy at the sub-central level is almost absent. Our identification strategy is based on a discontinuity caused by a special regulation on population weights in the tax sharing agreement between central government and the municipalities. We analyse the discontinuity in the conditional expectation of borrowing given population size to unveil an average causal effect of the treatment. Our results indicate that in line with theoretical expectations municipalities with higher revenue dependency observe higher net borrowing per capita. We also find that almost one half of the observed discontinuity works through an investment channel. Net borrowing is spatially correlated.
 
Online seit: 27.10.2016 0:00

Klaus S. Friesenbichler, Inflation and Broadband Revisited. Evidence from an OECD Panel

WIFO Working Papers, 2016, (527), 15 Seiten
This note revisits the conjecture that the use of broadband internet lowers transaction costs and thereby inflation. Using a macroeconomic panel of OECD countries, it roughly confirms previous findings reported by Yi and Choi (2005) by addressing conceptual and econometric issues.
 
Online seit: 12.10.2016 0:00

Jörg Pätzold, Hannes Winner, Taking the High Road? Compliance with Commuter Tax Allowances and the Role of Evasion Spillovers

WIFO Working Papers, 2016, (526), 32 Seiten
This paper provides evidence of evasion in the context of a widely used commuter tax allowance, and explores evasion spillovers as a determinant of the individual compliance decision. For this purpose, we exploit discontinuities in the commuter allowance scheme and employ a research design resting on a large panel of individual tax returns. We find that around 30 percent of all allowance claims are overstated and, consistent with deliberate tax evasion, we observe sharp reactions of tax payers to thresholds where the allowance discretely jumps to a higher amount. Further, we use variation in job changes to uncover spillover effects from the work environment on the individual compliance decision. These effects appear to be asymmetric: job changers moving to companies with a higher fraction of cheaters increase their cheating. In contrast, movers to companies with a lower fraction of cheaters tend not to alter their reporting behaviour. We provide suggestive evidence that the spillover has more to do with an information environment, but can ultimately not reject other behavioural explanations such as asymmetric persistence of norms.
 
Online seit: 06.10.2016 0:00

Sergey Aseev, Konstantin Besov, Serguei Kaniovski, The Optimal Use of Exhaustible Resources Under Non-constant Returns to Scale

WIFO Working Papers, 2016, (525), 48 Seiten
The paper offers a complete analysis of the welfare-maximising capital investment and resource depletion policies in the Dasgupta-Heal-Solow-Stiglitz (DHSS) model with capital depreciation and any returns to scale. We establish a general existence result and show that an optimal admissible policy may not exist if the output elasticity of the resource equals 1. We characterise the optimal policies by applying an appropriate version of the Pontryagin maximum principle for infinite-horizon optimal control problems. We conclude the paper with an economic interpretation and a discussion of the welfare-maximising policies.
 
Online seit: 04.10.2016 0:00

Stefan Schiman, Die Deregulierung der Finanzmärkte als Ursache ihrer Krise

WIFO Working Papers, 2016, (524), 26 Seiten
Die Finanzmarktreformen nach der Depression in den 1930er Jahren und die Neuordnung des internationalen Finanzsystems in Bretton Woods 1944 bildeten die Grundlage für eine marktwirtschaftliche Ordnung mit stark regulierten Finanzmärkten, die sich im Westen nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg etablierte. Die Instabilität des Wechselkursregimes aufgrund der asymmetrischen Rolle des Dollars bewirkte den Zusammenbruch dieses Ordnungsrahmens. Starken Wechselkursschwankungen folgten Erdölpreisschocks, die eine Hochzinspolitik auslösten, welche die Regulierung der Finanzmärkte in den USA und in Großbritannien untergrub. Die durch die Erdölkrise beschädigte nachfrageorientierte Wirtschaftspolitik wurde zudem von einer neoliberalen Doktrin abgelöst, die den Deregulierungsprozess theoretisch fundierte. Der mit dessen kompetitivem Charakter einhergehende Druck auf geschützte Finanzdienstleistungen und auf deren Profitabilität erzeugte eine Welle an Zusammenschlüssen in der Finanzwirtschaft und ermöglichte den dadurch entstandenen Finanzkonglomeraten immer riskantere Geschäfte, die mit dem Einlagen- und Kreditgeschäft eng verzahnt waren. Diese Gemengelage, die an die Ursprünge der Finanzmarktkrise 1929 erinnert, entzündete sich schließlich am Immobilienpreisboom in den USA und mündete in die Finanzmarktkrise 2007/08.
 
Online seit: 31.08.2016 0:00

Thomas Horvath, Helmut Mahringer, Entwicklung der Erwerbsbeteiligung bis 2030 unter Berücksichtigung von Änderungen im Bildungsverhalten und rezenter Pensionsreformen. Ein Update

WIFO Working Papers, 2016, (523), 31 Seiten
Die österreichische Bevölkerung wird in den nächsten Jahrzehnten weiter wachsen. Auch wenn sich das Bevölkerungswachstum nicht in gleichem Ausmaß in einer Zunahme Erwerbsbevölkerung niederschlagen wird, wird die Zahl der Personen im erwerbsfähigen Alter dennoch voraussichtlich bis 2020 deutlich zunehmen und schließlich – gemäß der Bevölkerungsprognose 2015 (Hauptvariante) von Statistik Austria – bis 2030 auf das Niveau von 2015 sinken. Wieweit sich diese demographische Veränderung im tatsächlichen Arbeitskräfteangebot widerspiegeln wird, hängt wesentlich vom Erwerbsverhalten ab. Wie die Analyse der Entwicklung der Erwerbsquote zeigt, wirken sich Veränderungen der Ausbildungsstruktur, langfristige Trends im Erwerbsverhalten und die Verschärfung der Pensionszugangsbestimmungen deutlich erhöhend auf die Erwerbsbeteiligung aus. Auf Basis neuer Bevölkerungsprognosen wird die Entwicklung des Arbeitskräfteangebotes bis 2030 geschätzt.
 
Online seit: 31.08.2016 0:00

Karl Aiginger, This Can Still Be Europe's Century

WIFO Working Papers, 2016, (522), 13 Seiten
We live in a world of black and white, with referenda in the yes/no style, politics in 100-second video clips and headline chasing. All of this leads to over-simplification and, in the end, to a seeming reduction of options. We see this all too well in the case of the European Union: one is either for or against it. In this cacophony of dichotomous beliefs and one-sided or even false information we tend to oversee the most important question: do we really want to leave behind what we have achieved in seven decades of a great European project? We still have a narrow window of opportunity to introduce reforms, but time is running out. With Euro-scepticism on the rise it becomes harder each day to tell a convincing and impassioned European story.
 
Online seit: 18.08.2016 0:00

Andrea Kunnert, Housing Affordability in Austria by Age and Year of Move-in. Application of the Residual Income and Tailored Ratio Approach

WIFO Working Papers, 2016, (521), 19 Seiten
Housing affordability problems are expected to increase for Austrian households because housing costs have been rising dynamically over the last years. Households who moved more recently are expected to be affected the most. Previous research has identified younger households as also being prone to housing affordability problems because they have relatively lower incomes. There is a strong correlation between the year of move-in and age – young households comprise a large share of households who moved recently. This paper applies the tailored ratio and residual income approach to Austrian households for 2014 to analyse housing affordability by age group and also by year of move-in. To identify whether age (lifecycle) or prevailing market conditions cause affordability problems, affordability measures are compared for age groups at different intervals of move-in. The results suggest that both effects are at work: young households who moved recently have the highest incidence of affordability problems compared to older households. For other age groups, affordability problems also mostly occur for households who moved recently. The price distortion between below-market rents due to long-term contracts and market rents becomes more pronounced. This adversely affects newcomers and dis-incentivises mobility of incumbents.
 
Online seit: 01.08.2016 0:00
Login-Formular